Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.8851.194
Median2.7162.463
Mean3.0373.610
75% Quartile3.8324.732
Interquartile Range1.9463.538

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.60318.233
27.65314.578
36.93413.225
46.44112.173
56.17811.396
65.86910.407
75.6259.735
85.4539.123
95.3018.539
105.1548.116
114.9697.775
124.8537.411
134.7627.138
144.6636.869
154.5436.582
164.4496.362
174.3716.105
184.3055.850
194.2185.633
204.1485.467
214.0835.307
224.0115.127
233.9525.012
243.8894.838
253.8324.733
263.7754.642
273.7134.503
283.6614.394
293.6084.276
303.5354.141
313.4864.024
323.4323.901
333.3883.808
343.3483.722
353.3083.597
363.2683.502
373.2163.407
383.1623.320
393.1143.249
403.0703.156
413.0383.068
422.9993.005
432.9632.950
442.9272.877
452.8902.813
462.8522.739
472.8272.676
482.7982.593
492.7542.529
502.7162.463
512.6802.403
522.6382.345
532.6042.274
542.5682.211
552.5352.142
562.5012.067
572.4672.022
582.4371.975
592.4021.926
602.3621.860
612.3301.798
622.2971.752
632.2731.709
642.2411.658
652.2131.618
662.1811.578
672.1441.540
682.1071.492
692.0711.442
702.0421.407
712.0061.359
721.9701.321
731.9411.276
741.9151.237
751.8851.194
761.8531.155
771.8201.114
781.7841.076
791.7541.040
801.7210.993
811.6890.949
821.6570.907
831.6100.861
841.5710.822
851.5310.788
861.4880.744
871.4510.698
881.3980.661
891.3480.617
901.2980.569
911.2450.524
921.1790.472
931.1100.416
941.0600.348
950.9950.300
960.9110.245
970.8250.164
980.7520.094
990.5910.012


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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