Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.0294.816
Median9.2779.682
Mean12.71014.370
75% Quartile16.55018.970
Interquartile Range11.52114.154

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
156.29268.093
246.87456.062
342.25951.468
437.65347.763
535.08245.068
632.69241.399
730.94238.882
829.48336.580
928.11134.336
1026.80332.686
1125.86231.342
1224.90829.885
1323.91828.799
1423.00527.727
1522.21826.570
1621.50025.667
1720.83124.630
1820.29023.594
1919.73622.699
2019.24722.006
2118.70221.347
2217.93820.624
2317.48420.126
2416.99219.411
2516.55118.970
2616.18518.594
2715.83218.030
2815.51417.588
2915.14717.081
3014.80516.533
3114.52616.039
3214.13215.546
3313.75015.163
3413.47114.790
3513.10514.286
3612.83113.890
3712.51613.500
3812.15913.143
3911.85012.853
4011.55812.477
4111.33712.119
4211.06111.858
4310.86211.640
4410.62811.344
4510.31311.081
4610.05110.791
479.86610.531
489.65910.197
499.4419.948
509.2779.682
519.1089.444
528.9039.208
538.6798.937
548.4998.681
558.3068.426
568.0958.121
577.9197.943
587.7207.766
597.5327.573
607.3507.324
617.1907.079
627.0496.903
636.8326.741
646.6816.544
656.5206.392
666.3446.239
676.1606.097
686.0125.915
695.8935.730
705.7485.599
715.6165.421
725.4525.280
735.2855.117
745.1654.973
755.0274.815
764.8514.676
774.6784.526
784.5534.389
794.3914.260
804.2254.092
814.0163.936
823.8683.790
833.6973.627
843.5403.491
853.3623.375
863.1773.221
873.0103.064
882.8622.940
892.6852.792
902.5092.630
912.2752.481
922.0922.308
931.9472.127
941.7551.910
951.5621.758
961.3441.585
971.0841.338
980.7851.130
990.4190.893


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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