Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.4221.992
Median3.4914.119
Mean3.9055.947
75% Quartile4.9387.940
Interquartile Range2.5165.948

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.83727.941
29.62722.934
38.66021.040
48.11419.522
57.80218.423
67.50616.934
77.28115.917
87.00514.990
96.82314.089
106.62513.428
116.46612.890
126.27312.308
136.12711.874
145.99411.446
155.87110.984
165.75410.623
175.63710.209
185.5239.795
195.4269.437
205.3219.159
215.2278.895
225.1638.605
235.0828.405
245.0048.118
254.9397.940
264.8587.788
274.7737.560
284.6927.382
294.6267.176
304.5706.954
314.5066.753
324.4486.552
334.3856.396
344.3286.243
354.2656.037
364.2065.874
374.1355.714
384.0915.566
394.0465.446
403.9915.291
413.9205.142
423.8745.033
433.8234.942
443.7834.819
453.7394.709
463.6954.587
473.6374.478
483.5874.337
493.5384.232
503.4914.119
513.4344.018
523.3843.918
533.3433.802
543.2993.693
553.2553.583
563.2133.452
573.1603.375
583.1293.298
593.0963.215
603.0573.106
613.0163.000
622.9812.922
632.9452.851
642.9062.764
652.8532.698
662.8092.630
672.7642.567
682.7262.486
692.6852.404
702.6432.345
712.6012.265
722.5612.202
732.5142.129
742.4722.063
752.4221.992
762.3891.929
772.3451.860
782.3031.797
792.2561.738
802.2081.661
812.1631.589
822.1101.521
832.0601.444
842.0141.381
851.9591.327
861.9051.254
871.8551.179
881.8101.120
891.7461.049
901.6960.971
911.6210.899
921.5610.815
931.5000.726
941.4270.619
951.3640.542
961.2740.455
971.1620.329
981.0100.220
990.8340.094


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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