Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


  • Jan

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Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.6040.820
Median1.0651.785
Mean1.3912.743
75% Quartile1.7853.675
Interquartile Range1.1812.856

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.78213.390
24.90211.064
34.38310.170
44.0809.446
53.6938.917
63.4108.194
73.2277.695
83.0827.237
92.9506.789
102.8246.458
112.6806.188
122.5735.894
132.5005.675
142.4205.458
152.3425.224
162.2855.040
172.2354.830
182.1684.619
192.1084.437
202.0504.295
211.9904.161
221.9404.013
231.8833.912
241.8273.766
251.7853.675
261.7443.599
271.7093.483
281.6753.393
291.6363.289
301.6013.177
311.5693.077
321.5322.976
331.5062.898
341.4772.822
351.4522.719
361.4202.638
371.3882.559
381.3592.486
391.3352.427
401.3022.351
411.2822.278
421.2522.225
431.2292.181
441.2052.121
451.1792.068
461.1562.009
471.1351.957
481.1071.889
491.0861.839
501.0651.785
511.0401.737
521.0211.690
531.0001.636
540.9821.584
550.9651.533
560.9471.472
570.9241.437
580.9061.401
590.8891.363
600.8701.313
610.8531.265
620.8341.230
630.8171.198
640.7971.159
650.7821.129
660.7651.099
670.7431.071
680.7261.035
690.7070.998
700.6890.973
710.6740.938
720.6560.910
730.6340.878
740.6210.850
750.6040.820
760.5900.792
770.5700.763
780.5480.737
790.5310.712
800.5110.679
810.4950.649
820.4760.621
830.4580.590
840.4440.564
850.4240.542
860.4070.512
870.3890.483
880.3660.459
890.3450.431
900.3220.400
910.2970.372
920.2780.340
930.2500.306
940.2170.266
950.1850.238
960.1530.206
970.1170.161
980.0820.123
990.0170.081


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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