Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic



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Probability distribution for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.2751.413
Median2.1332.601
Mean2.7303.732
75% Quartile3.4974.757
Interquartile Range2.2233.345

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.93418.202
29.32714.473
38.00313.117
47.28412.055
56.75111.301
66.45910.300
76.1579.631
85.8839.031
95.6118.456
105.3798.040
115.2027.705
125.0257.346
134.8907.081
144.7416.822
154.5896.543
164.4656.327
174.2966.081
184.1765.836
194.0555.626
203.9365.464
213.8415.309
223.7285.141
233.6525.025
243.5694.860
253.4984.757
263.4214.670
273.3304.540
283.2604.438
293.2044.321
303.1394.194
313.0874.080
323.0133.966
332.9593.878
342.9103.792
352.8593.675
362.8093.584
372.7563.493
382.7113.411
392.6593.343
402.6033.256
412.5623.173
422.5133.112
432.4723.061
442.4122.992
452.3622.930
462.3172.862
472.2642.801
482.2162.723
492.1732.664
502.1332.601
512.0992.545
522.0562.489
532.0182.424
541.9752.363
551.9392.302
561.8932.229
571.8552.186
581.8272.143
591.7982.097
601.7662.036
611.7351.976
621.7031.933
631.6731.894
641.6371.845
651.6061.808
661.5731.770
671.5411.735
681.5051.690
691.4771.643
701.4421.611
711.4091.566
721.3741.530
731.3411.489
741.3061.453
751.2741.413
761.2371.377
771.2011.338
781.1631.303
791.1311.270
801.0951.226
811.0631.186
821.0251.147
830.9881.104
840.9531.068
850.9141.037
860.8670.996
870.8370.954
880.8040.920
890.7670.880
900.7160.835
910.6750.794
920.6340.746
930.5930.695
940.5420.633
950.4980.589
960.4280.538
970.3710.465
980.2920.402
990.1620.328


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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