Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep8.9778.4000.3596.31727.570
Sep-Oct17.30011.4710.51711.63967.364
Sep-Nov20.36112.5310.60613.65773.103

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.04546.561
2018.93534.605
3014.94627.080
4012.02020.551
509.71115.530
607.75911.072
706.1087.825
804.5335.140
902.8942.806

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
151.11277.337
241.58167.525
337.47263.673
435.22260.502
532.99258.149
630.73754.869
729.45352.554
827.99150.383
926.89748.205
1026.04546.561
1125.26245.191
1224.13143.670
1323.34342.510
1422.69741.341
1521.99740.050
1621.26539.019
1720.69137.810
1820.09836.570
1919.53835.473
2018.93534.605
2118.54533.763
2218.00332.823
2317.62132.163
2417.17131.198
2516.72930.591
2616.36330.068
2716.01229.270
2815.69128.635
2915.28827.895
3014.94627.080
3114.59726.334
3214.25225.575
3313.85724.976
3413.54424.386
3513.28923.576
3613.01422.929
3712.74222.285
3812.44421.686
3912.22121.195
4012.02020.551
4111.66819.931
4211.42419.473
4311.17019.089
4410.99518.563
4510.76518.092
4610.54317.568
4710.36917.096
4810.12216.483
499.89716.023
509.71115.530
519.48215.086
529.26514.645
539.09414.134
548.89613.651
558.71913.167
568.53112.588
578.30412.250
588.11711.912
597.95911.546
607.75911.072
617.59610.606
627.43010.272
637.2499.964
647.0949.591
656.9159.306
666.7479.017
676.5538.752
686.4368.411
696.2718.068
706.1087.825
715.9797.498
725.8027.241
735.6586.945
745.4976.685
755.3446.403
765.2466.155
775.0345.891
784.8995.652
794.6995.427
804.5335.140
814.3854.876
824.2304.631
834.0524.361
843.9184.140
853.7563.953
863.6143.708
873.4473.462
883.2603.270
893.0773.046
902.8942.806
912.6772.589
922.5082.343
932.3132.093
942.1041.804
951.8461.608
961.6231.394
971.2781.103
980.9470.873
990.4950.630


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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