Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug11.66211.8130.4726.33232.584
Aug-Sep20.63920.2130.83112.65060.154
Aug-Oct28.96323.2840.98917.97199.948

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1052.78761.224
2042.30147.792
3035.05539.057
4029.26531.058
5024.35124.407
6019.91517.923
7015.70712.774
8011.7298.280
907.2494.329

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
182.23195.221
273.07584.407
368.36180.158
465.05176.658
562.53574.060
659.97370.434
757.34567.873
855.29565.467
953.98063.051
1052.78761.224
1151.36659.698
1250.16858.002
1348.91756.706
1447.60455.398
1546.46553.949
1645.72252.791
1744.64751.427
1843.77150.025
1943.00648.780
2042.30147.792
2141.51446.831
2240.76345.753
2340.01944.994
2439.10843.880
2538.39843.177
2637.74842.569
2737.10641.637
2836.53840.893
2935.93140.022
3035.05539.057
3134.24138.168
3233.79137.259
3333.12236.537
3432.46635.821
3531.94634.832
3631.44334.037
3730.89333.239
3830.48132.491
3929.86431.873
4029.26531.058
4128.89730.265
4228.44029.676
4327.81629.177
4427.22228.491
4526.64127.871
4626.18027.176
4725.68826.543
4825.25025.715
4924.76725.087
5024.35124.407
5123.88023.789
5223.35723.169
5322.90622.445
5422.49421.752
5522.02021.050
5621.61920.201
5721.20819.700
5820.78319.196
5920.30718.644
6019.91517.923
6119.51117.208
6219.09816.689
6318.73816.207
6418.29515.621
6517.89815.167
6617.51614.707
6717.03414.281
6816.60213.731
6916.16513.172
7015.70712.774
7115.31512.236
7214.92411.811
7314.61311.319
7414.18910.886
7513.77810.413
7613.3599.997
7712.8899.552
7812.5499.148
7912.0858.768
8011.7298.280
8111.1877.832
8210.8297.416
8310.4576.956
8410.0076.581
859.5586.264
869.0615.848
878.6205.432
888.1855.108
897.7284.732
907.2494.329
916.7133.968
926.1923.560
935.6983.148
945.1562.678
954.5992.362
964.1362.020
973.4891.564
982.6871.211
991.6290.848


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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