Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep9.1529.5302.6980.3595.93427.570
Sep-Oct17.77015.4404.8060.51711.23967.364
Sep-Nov20.90718.4276.9090.60613.17173.103

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.82746.561
2023.93134.605
3019.17527.080
4015.53120.551
5012.83015.530
6010.44511.072
708.3017.825
806.2705.140
904.1202.806

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.42877.337
248.12767.525
344.49863.673
441.11360.502
539.29358.149
637.45654.869
735.93952.554
834.20750.383
932.91548.205
1031.82746.561
1130.66245.191
1229.67743.670
1328.82342.510
1428.08041.341
1527.24440.050
1626.55139.019
1725.96537.810
1825.27836.570
1924.53335.473
2023.93134.605
2123.41833.763
2222.93232.823
2322.40732.163
2421.90831.198
2521.43330.591
2620.92130.068
2720.49629.270
2820.05628.635
2919.64027.895
3019.17527.080
3118.76226.334
3218.31825.575
3317.92024.976
3417.51924.386
3517.17723.576
3616.86322.929
3716.51422.285
3816.16421.686
3915.79721.195
4015.53120.551
4115.20619.931
4214.94819.473
4314.74819.089
4414.41618.563
4514.13818.092
4613.88017.568
4713.62217.096
4813.29016.483
4913.05716.023
5012.83015.530
5112.57615.086
5212.32414.645
5312.08014.134
5411.77813.651
5511.53213.167
5611.29712.588
5711.04912.250
5810.81111.912
5910.63611.546
6010.44511.072
6110.15510.606
629.93410.272
639.7319.964
649.5619.591
659.3349.306
669.1109.017
678.8738.752
688.6938.411
698.4438.068
708.3017.825
718.0637.498
727.8607.241
737.6656.945
747.4676.685
757.2946.403
767.1436.155
776.9155.891
786.7015.652
796.4885.427
806.2705.140
816.0784.876
825.8584.631
835.6584.361
845.4254.140
855.2193.953
864.9993.708
874.7193.462
884.5053.270
894.3103.046
904.1202.806
913.8772.589
923.5972.343
933.2962.093
943.0181.804
952.7331.608
962.4141.394
972.0051.103
981.5460.873
991.0060.630


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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