Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Feb0.6830.2140.5440.0010.2000.214
Feb-Mar1.96216.8311.2830.0722.97816.831
Feb-Apr3.04217.7151.9240.1413.49517.715

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.9745.637
203.8573.739
303.2072.852
402.7052.200
502.2861.751
601.9221.359
701.5901.068
801.2640.800
900.8770.525

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.44914.312
27.33111.245
36.7089.750
46.3238.846
55.9958.079
65.7447.393
75.5306.846
85.3406.333
95.1415.916
104.9745.637
114.8365.373
124.6925.130
134.5864.929
144.4924.712
154.3634.507
164.2554.340
174.1414.169
184.0164.003
193.9263.864
203.8573.739
213.7683.635
223.6963.516
233.6223.433
243.5593.321
253.5003.253
263.4343.191
273.3633.098
283.3103.015
293.2622.939
303.2072.852
313.1582.774
323.1112.694
333.0682.634
343.0192.574
352.9582.494
362.9092.433
372.8542.368
382.7992.309
392.7622.259
402.7052.200
412.6602.147
422.6232.104
432.5832.068
442.5432.023
452.5011.977
462.4531.930
472.4121.885
482.3701.833
492.3301.792
502.2861.751
512.2381.713
522.2051.676
532.1661.626
542.1241.588
552.0861.540
562.0481.496
572.0191.467
581.9851.436
591.9511.404
601.9221.359
611.8891.320
621.8531.292
631.8261.263
641.7941.230
651.7661.206
661.7391.179
671.7011.151
681.6661.124
691.6301.092
701.5901.068
711.5641.037
721.5311.013
731.5000.985
741.4680.959
751.4400.931
761.3980.906
771.3710.878
781.3310.854
791.3040.831
801.2640.800
811.2380.771
821.2070.745
831.1520.714
841.1180.689
851.0760.668
861.0400.638
870.9970.609
880.9630.585
890.9270.555
900.8770.525
910.8330.495
920.7890.462
930.7420.426
940.6840.381
950.6180.350
960.5630.314
970.4960.261
980.3970.215
990.2880.161


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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