Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Mar1.27916.6180.7390.0712.77816.618
Mar-Apr2.35917.5011.3800.1403.29517.501
Mar-May4.10818.3592.3140.4613.82818.359

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.7778.040
205.0185.464
304.0174.194
403.3473.256
502.7782.601
602.3132.036
701.9051.611
801.4701.226
900.9880.835

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.23718.202
211.59414.473
39.94013.117
49.13412.055
58.46811.301
68.10810.300
77.7339.631
87.3719.031
97.0608.456
106.7778.040
116.5717.705
126.3387.346
136.1837.081
145.9946.822
155.8276.543
165.6056.327
175.4476.081
185.3035.836
195.1505.626
205.0185.464
214.9065.309
224.7785.141
234.6805.025
244.5954.860
254.4874.757
264.3694.670
274.2574.540
284.1674.438
294.0934.321
304.0174.194
313.9474.080
323.8793.966
333.8093.878
343.7393.792
353.6843.675
363.6193.584
373.5633.493
383.4983.411
393.4303.343
403.3473.256
413.2833.173
423.2293.112
433.1703.061
443.1162.992
453.0582.930
462.9982.862
472.9282.801
482.8722.723
492.8232.664
502.7782.601
512.7272.545
522.6882.489
532.6292.424
542.5812.363
552.5262.302
562.4792.229
572.4342.186
582.3882.143
592.3482.097
602.3132.036
612.2761.976
622.2331.933
632.1951.894
642.1571.845
652.1061.808
662.0691.770
672.0281.735
681.9831.690
691.9431.643
701.9051.611
711.8561.566
721.8101.530
731.7691.489
741.7251.453
751.6821.413
761.6361.377
771.5971.338
781.5621.303
791.5171.270
801.4701.226
811.4301.186
821.3811.147
831.3321.104
841.2851.068
851.2341.037
861.1770.996
871.1480.954
881.0980.920
891.0600.880
900.9880.835
910.9350.794
920.8810.746
930.8360.695
940.7810.633
950.7170.589
960.6390.538
970.5620.465
980.4630.402
990.3100.328


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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