Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun3.3590.6428.5451.0180.79014.506
Jun-Jul12.7495.35113.6021.8653.91753.076
Jun-Aug24.40712.21125.4152.63510.32291.291

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.74953.869
2029.89239.293
3024.14930.726
4019.77123.739
5016.13518.592
6013.27114.069
7010.68710.685
807.9777.712
905.2554.846

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
168.57793.863
260.98980.939
355.61275.892
451.83971.753
549.03768.695
646.83264.453
744.49961.479
842.71658.704
941.40255.941
1039.74953.869
1138.18252.151
1236.90950.257
1335.88648.822
1434.77647.385
1533.90645.807
1632.98444.556
1732.15943.098
1831.33641.616
1930.60040.315
2029.89239.293
2129.18738.308
2228.46137.215
2327.86636.453
2427.24335.346
2526.74534.655
2626.29034.062
2725.71033.162
2825.24132.450
2924.60331.627
3024.14930.726
3123.61029.906
3223.19829.079
3322.78128.430
3422.31427.793
3521.88526.926
3621.45226.238
3721.06725.556
3820.63224.925
3920.28724.410
4019.77123.739
4119.47823.094
4219.16522.621
4318.73922.224
4418.31821.683
4517.91521.201
4617.57320.665
4717.17820.183
4816.84919.559
4916.49319.092
5016.13518.592
5115.79218.142
5215.52717.696
5315.21117.179
5414.93016.690
5514.60916.200
5614.38015.613
5714.18715.270
5813.88214.926
5913.59814.553
6013.27114.069
6113.02813.592
6212.75713.248
6312.54012.930
6412.23712.544
6511.98212.247
6611.71611.946
6711.45211.668
6811.23511.309
6910.89410.945
7010.68710.685
7110.35810.335
7210.09110.057
739.7729.736
749.5439.451
759.2939.140
769.0288.865
778.7508.569
788.5248.299
798.2278.043
807.9777.712
817.6657.405
827.4207.118
837.1806.796
846.9526.530
856.6266.302
866.3846.000
876.1015.693
885.7785.449
895.5415.161
905.2554.846
914.9334.556
924.5824.221
934.1703.872
943.8093.456
953.4193.165
962.8892.836
972.5442.371
981.9981.982
991.1901.544


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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