Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct8.4552.1083.0710.1575.41032.400
Oct-Nov11.5664.2124.1310.2477.51441.113
Oct-Dec13.5274.9474.5810.2599.15549.956

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1023.94133.011
2018.65522.167
3015.23616.238
4012.77511.765
5010.6018.714
608.8756.216
707.2604.463
805.6743.011
903.9661.698

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
141.77464.356
236.03254.149
333.06550.171
430.60446.916
528.88644.517
627.80541.199
726.95738.883
825.88936.732
924.83834.600
1023.94133.011
1123.24531.700
1222.64430.262
1322.16429.179
1421.64428.100
1521.01826.924
1620.53425.997
1720.10324.924
1819.64423.843
1919.14622.901
2018.65522.167
2118.22921.464
2217.81420.690
2317.49520.154
2417.20419.382
2516.87018.903
2616.50018.495
2716.18817.879
2815.85717.395
2915.52516.840
3015.23616.238
3114.93615.695
3214.65615.152
3314.43314.728
3414.17114.317
3513.88813.760
3613.63413.323
3713.38212.893
3813.17512.499
3912.97412.179
4012.77511.765
4112.49311.371
4212.29111.084
4312.04010.845
4411.85610.521
4511.63710.233
4611.4229.917
4711.1899.634
4811.0189.271
4910.7719.001
5010.6018.714
5110.3898.458
5210.2348.205
5310.0617.915
549.9137.642
559.7277.371
569.5597.049
579.4136.862
589.2216.676
599.0696.475
608.8756.216
618.7355.963
628.5865.781
638.4395.615
648.2685.413
658.1145.259
667.9395.104
677.7514.962
687.6124.779
697.4324.594
707.2604.463
717.1154.288
726.9304.150
736.7533.990
746.5963.850
756.3893.698
766.2753.564
776.1033.421
785.9363.291
795.8103.168
805.6743.011
815.5062.866
825.3592.731
835.1302.581
844.9082.458
854.7322.353
864.5762.215
874.4332.076
884.3161.967
894.1551.838
903.9661.698
913.7711.572
923.5711.426
933.3981.276
943.1481.100
952.9000.979
962.6220.844
972.3210.656
981.9370.503
991.3750.335


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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