Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Feb0.6790.5440.2930.0010.2560.214
Feb-Mar1.9451.2830.6450.0723.10016.831
Feb-Apr3.0141.9242.0860.1413.66517.715

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.5195.637
201.8353.739
301.4712.852
401.2122.200
500.9861.751
600.7911.359
700.6361.068
800.4760.800
900.2910.525

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.00214.312
24.22011.245
33.7589.750
43.4648.846
53.2038.079
62.9997.393
72.8626.846
82.7266.333
92.6105.916
102.5195.637
112.4325.373
122.3565.130
132.2844.929
142.2094.712
152.1344.507
162.0614.340
172.0124.169
181.9524.003
191.8983.864
201.8353.739
211.7813.635
221.7453.516
231.7043.433
241.6703.321
251.6263.253
261.5903.191
271.5633.098
281.5313.015
291.5032.939
301.4712.852
311.4412.774
321.4132.694
331.3832.634
341.3522.574
351.3342.494
361.3142.433
371.2772.368
381.2532.309
391.2352.259
401.2122.200
411.1902.147
421.1652.104
431.1412.068
441.1172.023
451.0941.977
461.0741.930
471.0571.885
481.0341.833
491.0121.792
500.9861.751
510.9621.713
520.9411.676
530.9241.626
540.9041.588
550.8861.540
560.8661.496
570.8471.467
580.8291.436
590.8081.404
600.7911.359
610.7771.320
620.7641.292
630.7481.263
640.7331.230
650.7211.206
660.7031.179
670.6861.151
680.6691.124
690.6541.092
700.6361.068
710.6221.037
720.6071.013
730.5930.985
740.5790.959
750.5640.931
760.5440.906
770.5310.878
780.5150.854
790.4950.831
800.4760.800
810.4570.771
820.4390.745
830.4210.714
840.4020.689
850.3850.668
860.3670.638
870.3520.609
880.3300.585
890.3140.555
900.2910.525
910.2720.495
920.2490.462
930.2290.426
940.2000.381
950.1760.350
960.1440.314
970.1110.261
980.0490.215
990.0000.161


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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