Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1995) (GL)
May1.7290.9340.9540.2690.6053.842
May-Jun5.2189.4795.3600.5582.29014.221
May-Jul14.49914.53612.4551.8165.66754.819

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.34732.686
2028.46622.006
3022.58816.533
4017.95912.477
5014.5339.682
6011.6937.324
709.2315.599
806.9154.092
904.2322.630

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
174.94368.093
261.98356.062
356.03951.468
450.85447.763
548.00445.068
645.67641.399
743.51938.882
841.62236.580
940.07434.336
1038.34732.686
1137.20931.342
1235.86429.885
1334.38628.799
1433.40927.727
1532.42426.570
1631.49625.667
1730.62924.630
1829.78923.594
1929.18122.699
2028.46622.006
2127.71221.347
2226.98920.624
2326.12320.126
2425.46919.411
2524.95018.970
2624.36218.594
2723.88218.030
2823.46017.588
2922.96617.081
3022.58816.533
3122.12816.039
3221.60915.546
3321.17015.163
3420.61814.790
3520.11914.286
3619.68913.890
3719.21113.500
3818.75413.143
3918.36712.853
4017.95912.477
4117.50912.119
4217.18811.858
4316.84711.640
4416.40411.344
4516.08611.081
4615.74310.791
4715.43510.531
4815.07710.197
4914.8449.948
5014.5339.682
5114.3019.444
5214.0309.208
5313.6318.937
5413.3408.681
5513.0088.426
5612.7778.121
5712.5407.943
5812.2097.766
5911.9617.573
6011.6937.324
6111.4167.079
6211.1656.903
6310.8826.741
6410.6726.544
6510.4256.392
6610.1756.239
679.8596.097
689.6675.915
699.4365.730
709.2315.599
719.0405.421
728.7745.280
738.5985.117
748.3724.973
758.1244.815
767.9054.676
777.6864.526
787.3974.389
797.1904.260
806.9154.092
816.6473.936
826.3803.790
836.1683.627
845.9223.491
855.6793.375
865.4193.221
875.1583.064
884.8982.940
894.5842.792
904.2322.630
913.9222.481
923.7112.308
933.4372.127
943.1511.910
952.8591.758
962.5171.585
972.1111.338
981.7411.130
991.1130.893


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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