Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan1.2280.0270.1100.0030.33510.116
Jan-Feb1.9340.0280.4260.0040.63012.122
Jan-Mar2.6370.2427.6690.0750.86713.343

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.4346.458
201.7594.295
301.3703.177
401.1052.351
500.8941.785
600.7231.313
700.5700.973
800.4130.679
900.2480.400

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.06913.390
24.30411.064
33.80110.170
43.5139.446
53.1948.917
62.9978.194
72.7997.695
82.6677.237
92.5566.789
102.4346.458
112.3206.188
122.2155.894
132.1545.675
142.0895.458
152.0305.224
161.9735.040
171.9234.830
181.8784.619
191.8114.437
201.7594.295
211.7054.161
221.6584.013
231.6123.912
241.5603.766
251.5193.675
261.4883.599
271.4603.483
281.4293.393
291.4013.289
301.3703.177
311.3363.077
321.3092.976
331.2792.898
341.2552.822
351.2332.719
361.2042.638
371.1842.559
381.1542.486
391.1282.427
401.1052.351
411.0792.278
421.0562.225
431.0372.181
441.0172.121
450.9952.068
460.9742.009
470.9501.957
480.9321.889
490.9131.839
500.8941.785
510.8731.737
520.8581.690
530.8391.636
540.8251.584
550.8081.533
560.7911.472
570.7741.437
580.7571.401
590.7401.363
600.7231.313
610.7091.265
620.6931.230
630.6801.198
640.6631.159
650.6451.129
660.6321.099
670.6161.071
680.6011.035
690.5850.998
700.5700.973
710.5560.938
720.5400.910
730.5240.878
740.5100.850
750.4940.820
760.4830.792
770.4650.763
780.4480.737
790.4310.712
800.4130.679
810.3990.649
820.3860.621
830.3710.590
840.3540.564
850.3380.542
860.3240.512
870.3070.483
880.2870.459
890.2680.431
900.2480.400
910.2290.372
920.2050.340
930.1870.306
940.1590.266
950.1300.238
960.1010.206
970.0690.161
980.0350.123
990.0000.081


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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