Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Historical and exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan1.1990.110NA0.0030.26510.116
Jan-Feb1.8940.426NA0.0040.55512.122
Jan-Mar2.7697.669NA0.0751.47813.343

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.6426.458
2010.7364.295
309.0083.177
407.6722.351
506.4621.785
605.4981.313
704.6320.973
803.6960.679
902.6820.400

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.72713.390
221.79911.064
319.66910.170
417.6869.446
516.6728.917
615.9218.194
715.2167.695
814.5607.237
913.9726.789
1013.6426.458
1113.2856.188
1212.8555.894
1312.4345.675
1412.1685.458
1511.9035.224
1611.6185.040
1711.3944.830
1811.1484.619
1910.9224.437
2010.7364.295
2110.5144.161
2210.3584.013
2310.1653.912
249.9863.766
259.8253.675
269.6483.599
279.4733.483
289.3233.393
299.1573.289
309.0083.177
318.8533.077
328.7062.976
338.5652.898
348.4542.822
358.3102.719
368.1462.638
378.0292.559
387.9122.486
397.7812.427
407.6722.351
417.5432.278
427.4322.225
437.2972.181
447.1892.121
457.0472.068
466.9172.009
476.7971.957
486.6941.889
496.5761.839
506.4621.785
516.3681.737
526.2581.690
536.1351.636
546.0341.584
555.9311.533
565.8591.472
575.7661.437
585.6801.401
595.5751.363
605.4981.313
615.4061.265
625.3401.230
635.2441.198
645.1601.159
655.0621.129
664.9611.099
674.8901.071
684.7951.035
694.7130.998
704.6320.973
714.5440.938
724.4410.910
734.3270.878
744.2430.850
754.1500.820
764.0640.792
773.9640.763
783.8840.737
793.7960.712
803.6960.679
813.6040.649
823.5350.621
833.4570.590
843.3430.564
853.2360.542
863.1290.512
873.0300.483
882.9080.459
892.8180.431
902.6820.400
912.5770.372
922.4530.340
932.2860.306
942.1600.266
951.9650.238
961.7900.206
971.6280.161
981.4340.123
991.1650.081


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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