Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


Return to catchment list
Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10285.870306.192
20258.853266.036
30240.094239.743
40223.832215.198
50209.576193.893
60195.533171.219
70179.892150.193
80162.097126.862
90139.08896.921

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1360.838407.772
2342.882375.445
3326.398362.747
4316.379352.290
5310.131344.529
6305.219333.698
7299.411326.049
8294.334318.863
9290.058311.649
10285.870306.192
11282.015301.634
12279.529296.568
13276.632292.696
14273.751288.789
15270.986284.460
16268.946280.996
17265.941276.917
18263.197272.723
19261.216268.997
20258.853266.036
21257.288263.154
22255.413259.921
23253.105257.642
24251.339254.295
25249.472252.180
26247.133250.349
27245.373247.542
28243.381245.295
29241.542242.664
30240.094239.743
31238.378237.046
32236.704234.282
33235.150232.082
34233.440229.897
35232.210226.870
36229.984224.427
37228.233221.968
38226.430219.654
39224.901217.738
40223.832215.198
41222.535212.718
42220.947210.865
43219.517209.293
44218.151207.118
45217.026205.145
46215.679202.918
47214.006200.879
48212.386198.191
49210.851196.136
50209.576193.893
51208.178191.838
52206.207189.762
53204.965187.308
54203.380184.936
55201.515182.503
56200.464179.515
57199.186177.729
58197.909175.910
59196.664173.894
60195.533171.219
61193.950168.515
62192.620166.519
63191.379164.636
64190.001162.300
65188.425160.463
66186.805158.568
67185.063156.781
68183.289154.426
69181.663151.976
70179.892150.193
71178.342147.727
72176.661145.728
73174.900143.354
74173.355141.207
75171.478138.796
76169.364136.615
77167.713134.207
78165.844131.954
79164.348129.768
80162.097126.862
81160.163124.085
82158.696121.401
83156.711118.302
84154.728115.662
85152.121113.339
86149.616110.160
87146.722106.817
88144.440104.077
89141.599100.727
90139.08896.921
91136.07793.288
92133.04488.895
93128.89084.081
94124.65278.024
95120.31873.544
96115.47568.232
97108.27560.167
9899.82252.893
9984.94043.991


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence