Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.89759.178
2032.13645.072
3027.25637.672
4023.94231.821
5020.81627.435
6018.17123.362
7015.77920.042
8013.07416.776
9010.00013.068

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
168.972117.459
259.56094.458
353.25086.706
450.22180.799
547.41376.676
645.78071.269
743.88267.680
842.39564.472
941.00461.403
1039.89759.178
1138.83557.381
1237.80755.446
1336.87654.011
1436.25052.600
1535.55951.079
1634.71349.893
1734.07048.531
1833.40347.168
1932.71045.989
2032.13645.072
2131.60144.197
2231.08543.235
2330.61142.569
2430.10541.609
2529.37841.014
2628.78540.504
2728.45739.735
2827.96139.130
2927.60238.433
3027.25637.672
3126.94436.983
3226.64736.289
3326.24435.745
3425.85535.213
3525.57634.488
3625.29133.913
3724.86633.343
3824.53632.815
3924.20632.384
4023.94231.821
4123.58231.279
4223.24330.880
4322.93130.545
4422.63630.088
4522.34129.678
4622.04729.221
4721.72628.809
4821.44928.273
4921.14127.870
5020.81627.435
5120.55427.042
5220.25626.650
5319.99926.194
5419.78525.759
5519.51125.319
5619.20524.788
5718.91024.475
5818.67824.159
5918.40423.814
6018.17123.362
6117.86322.912
6217.60522.585
6317.36922.279
6417.16221.905
6516.93721.614
6616.68321.317
6716.47221.040
6816.23920.679
6916.04320.309
7015.77920.042
7115.51219.678
7215.20319.386
7314.95519.044
7414.65318.737
7514.41918.398
7614.15818.094
7713.87717.763
7813.62517.456
7913.35917.162
8013.07416.776
8112.82916.412
8212.49516.065
8312.22915.669
8411.94815.335
8511.63715.045
8611.32514.653
8711.02114.245
8810.68713.915
8910.30413.516
9010.00013.068
919.68112.645
929.35612.139
938.99011.591
948.55510.910
958.04510.410
967.5259.821
976.8608.927
985.9038.117
994.8197.108


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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