Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10300.060261.171
20263.768221.868
30243.065197.187
40224.751175.089
50208.734156.749
60192.831138.157
70175.870121.788
80155.438104.553
90130.68483.593

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1395.089365.842
2366.006331.993
3351.037318.806
4339.585308.002
5330.491300.021
6322.173288.942
7315.427281.163
8309.756273.893
9304.249266.633
10300.060261.171
11295.550256.629
12291.524251.601
13287.523247.776
14282.643243.931
15278.986239.689
16275.911236.308
17272.879232.345
18269.319228.290
19266.512224.704
20263.768221.868
21261.111219.117
22258.902216.043
23256.556213.886
24254.024210.728
25252.501208.742
26250.218207.027
27248.109204.406
28246.453202.317
29244.913199.880
30243.065197.187
31241.328194.712
32239.355192.187
33237.339190.185
34235.003188.205
35233.256185.475
36231.644183.283
37229.942181.085
38228.341179.027
39226.458177.329
40224.751175.089
41223.273172.912
42221.733171.293
43220.100169.924
44218.670168.037
45217.396166.333
46215.893164.418
47214.152162.672
48212.542160.382
49210.587158.640
50208.734156.749
51206.875155.023
52205.202153.289
53203.636151.249
54202.363149.288
55200.854147.287
56199.421144.846
57197.752143.395
58195.960141.923
59194.415140.300
60192.831138.157
61190.869136.005
62189.306134.425
63187.582132.942
64185.802131.112
65183.584129.680
66182.089128.208
67180.433126.828
68178.367125.017
69177.336123.144
70175.870121.788
71173.903119.922
72171.769118.417
73170.242116.639
74168.358115.040
75166.143113.254
76163.892111.646
77161.661109.881
78159.714108.237
79157.522106.651
80155.438104.553
81153.569102.561
82151.321100.646
83149.09498.448
84147.33096.585
85145.41294.954
86142.64492.732
87140.20890.409
88137.49688.512
89133.92186.204
90130.68483.593
91127.26481.111
92123.69778.118
93119.31174.848
94114.10470.737
95109.91367.692
96105.37064.070
9798.69558.519
9890.51553.424
9976.98547.007


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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