Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10319.289306.192
20290.566266.036
30271.002239.743
40254.266215.198
50239.044193.893
60224.946171.219
70207.930150.193
80189.017126.862
90163.93696.921

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1397.746407.772
2373.410375.445
3360.200362.747
4351.609352.290
5342.835344.529
6337.665333.698
7332.275326.049
8328.559318.863
9323.622311.649
10319.289306.192
11314.881301.634
12311.310296.568
13307.541292.696
14305.443288.789
15302.253284.460
16299.526280.996
17297.447276.917
18294.946272.723
19292.734268.997
20290.566266.036
21288.147263.154
22285.217259.921
23283.651257.642
24281.759254.295
25280.566252.180
26277.989250.349
27276.125247.542
28274.416245.295
29272.671242.664
30271.002239.743
31269.227237.046
32267.886234.282
33265.968232.082
34264.324229.897
35262.864226.870
36260.912224.427
37259.277221.968
38257.519219.654
39255.822217.738
40254.266215.198
41252.678212.718
42250.759210.865
43249.553209.293
44248.291207.118
45246.586205.145
46244.986202.918
47243.411200.879
48241.884198.191
49240.323196.136
50239.044193.893
51237.609191.838
52236.672189.762
53235.263187.308
54233.902184.936
55232.492182.503
56231.001179.515
57229.649177.729
58228.200175.910
59226.345173.894
60224.946171.219
61223.097168.515
62221.280166.519
63219.670164.636
64218.062162.300
65216.307160.463
66214.169158.568
67212.457156.781
68211.197154.426
69209.179151.976
70207.930150.193
71206.459147.727
72204.570145.728
73202.777143.354
74200.584141.207
75198.598138.796
76196.716136.615
77194.797134.207
78193.202131.954
79190.874129.768
80189.017126.862
81186.284124.085
82184.575121.401
83182.349118.302
84180.165115.662
85177.830113.339
86175.247110.160
87172.396106.817
88169.951104.077
89166.745100.727
90163.93696.921
91160.03793.288
92156.89488.895
93152.82784.081
94148.71978.024
95143.48173.544
96139.11968.232
97130.80760.167
98121.69152.893
99105.04043.991


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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