Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10226.438244.103
20196.996209.419
30176.378186.655
40160.167165.352
50146.551146.814
60132.101127.044
70117.435108.706
80100.37088.461
9080.29163.048

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1306.291331.633
2280.714303.794
3267.846292.857
4259.119283.847
5250.318277.159
6242.310267.825
7238.217261.230
8233.848255.034
9229.568248.811
10226.438244.103
11223.153240.170
12220.191235.798
13216.645232.455
14213.718229.082
15210.282225.343
16207.628222.350
17205.466218.826
18202.317215.201
19199.454211.979
20196.996209.419
21194.873206.927
22192.690204.129
23190.472202.158
24188.136199.260
25186.004197.430
26183.804195.844
27181.895193.413
28179.885191.466
29178.145189.187
30176.378186.655
31174.882184.317
32173.139181.921
33171.220180.012
34169.755178.116
35168.571175.490
36166.530173.369
37165.028171.233
38163.572169.224
39161.946167.559
40160.167165.352
41159.195163.196
42157.597161.585
43155.978160.218
44154.519158.327
45153.089156.610
46151.850154.672
47150.663152.898
48149.270150.557
49147.924148.767
50146.551146.814
51145.264145.023
52144.141143.214
53142.447141.076
54140.870139.008
55139.522136.886
56138.289134.280
57136.873132.723
58135.404131.136
59133.672129.377
60132.101127.044
61130.868124.684
62129.433122.942
63128.236121.300
64126.550119.262
65124.964117.660
66123.604116.007
67122.077114.449
68120.215112.395
69118.989110.260
70117.435108.706
71115.931106.559
72114.372104.818
73112.734102.754
74111.128100.887
75109.27398.793
76107.86696.900
77106.23994.812
78104.24492.861
79102.19390.971
80100.37088.461
8198.76686.068
8296.92183.760
8394.88781.102
8492.61578.844
8591.17376.863
8688.67174.161
8787.15171.332
8885.08669.024
8982.47166.216
9080.29163.048
9177.61160.047
9275.48756.451
9372.18852.559
9469.13547.741
9565.91444.240
9660.88640.168
9755.51634.162
9847.74628.952
9937.56022.873


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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