Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie



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Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10203.655
20166.162
30144.256
40125.694
50110.999
6096.703
7084.556
8072.139
9057.421

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1317.380
2278.704
3264.079
4252.303
5243.729
6232.014
7223.922
8216.463
9209.116
10203.655
11199.161
12194.234
13190.520
14186.817
15182.767
16179.567
17175.844
18172.070
19168.761
20166.162
21163.658
22160.878
23158.939
24156.119
25154.355
26152.839
27150.533
28148.706
29146.586
30144.256
31142.129
32139.971
33138.270
34136.595
35134.298
36132.464
37130.635
38128.931
39127.532
40125.694
41123.917
42122.601
43121.493
44119.971
45118.601
46117.069
47115.678
48113.862
49112.487
50110.999
51109.648
52108.295
53106.710
54105.193
55103.652
56101.781
57100.673
5899.553
5998.322
6096.703
6195.084
6293.899
6392.791
6491.428
6590.364
6689.275
6788.256
6886.922
6985.548
7084.556
7183.194
7282.100
7380.810
7479.653
7578.365
7677.208
7775.942
7874.765
7973.633
8072.139
8170.725
8269.369
8367.816
8466.503
8565.357
8663.798
8762.171
8860.846
8959.237
9057.421
9155.697
9253.623
9351.360
9448.519
9546.417
9643.917
9740.082
9836.556
9932.095


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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