Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie



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Exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie ( Jan 2011 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10100.35460.142
2084.89748.025
3074.68040.992
4067.30435.099
5060.19530.498
6053.99626.098
7048.27022.433
8041.82218.772
9033.66914.567

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1141.92596.520
2132.89584.264
3125.62479.595
4118.38275.823
5113.79173.070
6110.68269.299
7107.51966.690
8105.01964.281
9102.68561.907
10100.35460.142
1198.42458.688
1296.66557.094
1394.73455.893
1493.09154.695
1591.17853.386
1689.87352.352
1788.52751.149
1887.37149.930
1986.05248.863
2084.89748.025
2183.68647.218
2282.47146.323
2381.28745.700
2480.10444.793
2579.17544.227
2678.24443.740
2777.31943.001
2876.39942.416
2975.60741.737
3074.68040.992
3174.00840.313
3273.48039.625
3372.61439.084
3471.87238.551
3570.94137.821
3670.26037.239
3769.48536.660
3868.86036.121
3968.05835.679
4067.30435.099
4166.66834.539
4266.00734.125
4365.25733.777
4464.46533.299
4563.62132.870
4662.73232.390
4762.09631.956
4861.54931.389
4960.77930.961
5060.19530.498
5159.60030.079
5259.02529.660
5358.41429.170
5457.90428.701
5557.24128.227
5656.63927.651
5755.86327.312
5855.28626.969
5954.76526.592
6053.99626.098
6153.43325.605
6253.07525.246
6352.46124.910
6451.82124.497
6551.12024.176
6650.64323.848
6750.13623.541
6849.56123.141
6948.85422.730
7048.27022.433
7147.65622.027
7247.08621.701
7346.39121.319
7445.77220.976
7545.03320.596
7644.39520.255
7743.83219.883
7843.20019.538
7942.55219.207
8041.82218.772
8141.03418.361
8240.42917.968
8339.75717.520
8439.03917.143
8538.18616.814
8637.24516.369
8736.36315.906
8835.53415.531
8934.41815.077
9033.66914.567
9132.71814.086
9231.49113.510
9330.30512.886
9429.09912.109
9527.65511.539
9625.98710.867
9724.4389.850
9822.4648.928
9919.0987.783


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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