Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile30.78031.520
Median40.87347.148
Mean43.64753.296
75% Quartile53.09068.012
Interquartile Range22.31036.491

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
198.568161.004
289.624135.711
384.175126.789
480.417119.833
578.325114.888
675.251108.284
772.732103.819
870.65599.768
968.93395.836
1067.20092.950
1165.89190.595
1264.16588.036
1362.96786.120
1462.09284.222
1561.00782.159
1660.38680.538
1759.61678.662
1858.90776.770
1958.00275.119
2057.14873.828
2156.30072.587
2255.40771.215
2354.71270.261
2453.89768.876
2553.09468.012
2652.43167.271
2751.86466.146
2851.41565.256
2950.78264.226
3050.18363.096
3149.70562.066
3249.13261.024
3348.58760.203
3448.14759.395
3547.67258.290
3647.09457.409
3746.63456.531
3846.17655.714
3945.58455.043
4045.25754.163
4144.86453.313
4244.46252.684
4343.98052.155
4443.48751.427
4543.01550.774
4642.52050.042
4742.10749.379
4841.70348.513
4941.31947.857
5040.87347.148
5140.46146.503
5240.00045.858
5339.59745.103
5439.28944.380
5538.91243.645
5638.47442.753
5738.16342.224
5837.75041.689
5937.35041.102
6036.99540.328
6136.63039.555
6236.19738.988
6335.75938.458
6435.32337.806
6534.92037.296
6634.50736.774
6734.02936.285
6833.67035.645
6933.32834.984
7032.94934.507
7132.62633.851
7232.20533.324
7331.73232.702
7431.24232.143
7530.78031.519
7630.40430.959
7729.86430.345
7829.41129.774
7928.96729.223
8028.49928.495
8128.11127.804
8227.65127.141
8327.15926.379
8426.73325.734
8526.19325.170
8625.59724.400
8725.12123.595
8824.59022.937
8923.94322.136
9023.50421.228
9122.83220.364
9222.19319.318
9321.46918.171
9420.71716.722
9519.89515.642
9619.08914.348
9717.55812.342
9816.26810.471
9913.3928.063


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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