Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie



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Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.99018.398
Median23.13827.435
Mean25.98232.966
75% Quartile32.42341.013
Interquartile Range16.43322.615

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.631117.459
265.19894.458
358.61386.706
455.14580.799
552.30676.676
650.16671.269
748.34667.680
846.72364.472
945.17161.403
1043.92159.178
1142.89257.381
1241.76555.446
1340.65054.011
1439.88652.600
1539.18451.079
1638.29749.893
1737.42448.531
1836.77547.168
1936.12545.989
2035.43545.072
2135.00944.197
2234.36443.235
2333.86142.569
2433.20641.609
2532.42341.014
2631.87840.504
2731.49739.735
2831.02639.130
2930.46038.433
3030.06637.672
3129.69536.983
3229.32036.289
3328.96535.745
3428.59835.213
3528.25734.488
3627.91733.913
3727.59433.343
3827.15432.815
3926.75932.384
4026.46931.821
4126.13931.279
4225.77130.880
4325.33330.545
4425.01130.088
4524.65429.678
4624.37829.221
4724.04528.809
4823.71128.273
4923.45527.870
5023.13827.435
5122.77227.042
5222.50526.650
5322.14926.194
5421.85725.759
5521.64425.319
5621.24224.788
5720.94524.475
5820.69524.159
5920.40123.814
6020.09723.362
6119.82322.912
6219.57422.585
6319.28422.279
6419.05721.905
6518.84521.614
6618.54321.317
6718.31021.040
6818.02520.679
6917.75720.309
7017.47620.042
7117.25719.678
7216.95219.386
7316.65019.044
7416.40118.737
7515.98918.398
7615.71618.094
7715.46417.763
7815.15917.456
7914.89217.162
8014.62216.776
8114.27716.412
8213.97716.065
8313.59015.669
8413.32815.335
8513.00415.045
8612.62714.653
8712.29814.245
8811.98213.915
8911.59213.516
9011.26313.068
9110.91412.645
9210.57112.139
9310.03411.591
949.64610.910
959.03410.410
968.5479.821
977.7178.927
986.8378.117
995.6327.108


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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