Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


  • Jan

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Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile19.80320.596
Median27.47530.498
Mean30.19734.522
75% Quartile37.77544.227
Interquartile Range17.97223.630

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
179.07396.520
268.76384.264
363.30679.595
460.51175.823
557.90073.070
655.96069.299
753.94566.690
852.42464.281
950.93361.907
1049.60760.142
1148.32458.688
1247.30057.094
1346.16355.893
1445.11454.695
1544.20353.386
1643.48252.352
1742.77351.149
1841.96049.930
1941.08648.863
2040.58248.025
2140.05947.218
2239.42846.323
2338.85345.700
2438.39944.793
2537.78644.227
2637.28643.740
2736.78743.001
2836.30242.416
2935.75941.737
3035.22640.992
3134.77540.313
3234.25639.625
3333.68139.084
3433.23138.551
3532.79137.821
3632.43737.239
3732.14336.660
3831.80436.121
3931.45035.679
4031.06635.099
4130.76434.539
4230.24334.125
4329.86933.777
4429.44333.299
4529.05932.870
4628.74332.390
4728.46831.956
4828.14331.389
4927.80830.961
5027.47530.498
5127.21330.079
5226.92229.660
5326.54429.170
5426.18128.701
5525.95228.227
5625.64427.651
5725.22027.312
5824.89926.969
5924.55326.592
6024.26126.098
6123.94025.605
6223.64925.246
6323.37024.910
6423.09924.497
6522.83824.176
6622.50923.848
6722.24723.541
6822.01723.141
6921.74322.730
7021.39622.433
7121.08422.027
7220.78521.701
7320.43121.319
7420.11920.976
7519.79920.596
7619.52020.255
7719.12819.883
7818.81319.538
7918.52619.207
8018.19718.772
8117.85018.361
8217.40717.968
8317.01517.520
8416.63017.143
8516.27116.814
8615.87616.369
8715.46715.906
8815.07715.531
8914.56015.077
9014.10714.567
9113.76214.086
9213.20513.510
9312.66012.886
9412.04812.109
9511.49811.539
9610.80710.867
9710.0199.850
989.1068.928
997.5027.783


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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