Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie



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Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile21.56820.596
Median29.87430.498
Mean32.66734.522
75% Quartile40.81144.227
Interquartile Range19.24323.630

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
185.01796.520
273.28784.264
368.10179.595
464.75275.823
562.01573.070
659.96169.299
757.78166.690
856.33364.281
954.62561.907
1053.48360.142
1151.85658.688
1250.86657.094
1349.71355.893
1448.67454.695
1547.66453.386
1646.82952.352
1746.15451.149
1845.30449.930
1944.49948.863
2043.72748.025
2143.22347.218
2242.57946.323
2341.95345.700
2441.36144.793
2540.82944.227
2640.31943.740
2739.88343.001
2839.19642.416
2938.70041.737
3038.14140.992
3137.53940.313
3237.01039.625
3336.44939.084
3435.98438.551
3535.57437.821
3635.16437.239
3734.80636.660
3834.46136.121
3934.04135.679
4033.73935.099
4133.28134.539
4232.71734.125
4332.26533.777
4431.95233.299
4531.45632.870
4631.18032.390
4730.83331.956
4830.54031.389
4930.23330.961
5029.87430.498
5129.59230.079
5229.18329.660
5328.82929.170
5428.45428.701
5528.11328.227
5627.80727.651
5727.39727.312
5827.04126.969
5926.69526.592
6026.37526.098
6126.04325.605
6225.77525.246
6325.42424.910
6425.17524.497
6524.83624.176
6624.51123.848
6724.20323.541
6823.91523.141
6923.65922.730
7023.31022.433
7122.94022.027
7222.57521.701
7322.24821.319
7421.92220.976
7521.56220.596
7621.26420.255
7720.85819.883
7820.52719.538
7920.16819.207
8019.89718.772
8119.51918.361
8219.04417.968
8318.57517.520
8418.14717.143
8517.73016.814
8617.35016.369
8716.89815.906
8816.44515.531
8915.97815.077
9015.44714.567
9115.07414.086
9214.49713.510
9313.80912.886
9413.15912.109
9512.54611.539
9611.91410.867
9711.0959.850
9810.0568.928
998.2337.783


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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