Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie



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Probability distribution for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile19.07920.596
Median26.49730.498
Mean29.12834.522
75% Quartile36.50644.227
Interquartile Range17.42723.630

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.52096.520
266.85984.264
361.48279.595
458.67575.823
556.14773.070
654.13069.299
752.37666.690
850.70364.281
949.24761.907
1047.91560.142
1146.71658.688
1245.68057.094
1344.54955.893
1443.54254.695
1542.74953.386
1642.01752.352
1741.30151.149
1840.55749.930
1939.68548.863
2039.15248.025
2138.67547.218
2238.13746.323
2337.52845.700
2437.09044.793
2536.50744.227
2635.97043.740
2735.45743.001
2835.02642.416
2934.55441.737
3033.94940.992
3133.50740.313
3233.00039.625
3332.42639.084
3432.05538.551
3531.64437.821
3631.29637.239
3730.95836.660
3830.66336.121
3930.30935.679
4029.96235.099
4129.57234.539
4229.16734.125
4328.77133.777
4428.39533.299
4527.99432.870
4627.73932.390
4727.39831.956
4827.07431.389
4926.79330.961
5026.49730.498
5126.20030.079
5225.89229.660
5325.61529.170
5425.23628.701
5524.97228.227
5624.68527.651
5724.32027.312
5823.95926.969
5923.63626.592
6023.29826.098
6123.00625.605
6222.75825.246
6322.48824.910
6422.23624.497
6521.95924.176
6621.65623.848
6721.42223.541
6821.17723.141
6920.91522.730
7020.55422.433
7120.28422.027
7220.00521.701
7319.62021.319
7419.35020.976
7519.07820.596
7618.73320.255
7718.38319.883
7818.09519.538
7917.79019.207
8017.48118.772
8117.13018.361
8216.69017.968
8316.31417.520
8415.98417.143
8515.59616.814
8615.22416.369
8714.84515.906
8814.41815.531
8913.93115.077
9013.50014.567
9113.18414.086
9212.64713.510
9312.12112.886
9411.59412.109
9511.03611.539
9610.35010.867
979.6079.850
988.6968.928
997.1657.783


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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