Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1955+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Aug53.23294.96714.28752.461122.856
Aug-Sep127.647162.72239.303123.233266.895
Aug-Oct207.276203.86350.261169.742417.569

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10282.054318.227
20255.132276.122
30234.235248.650
40214.949223.114
50199.348201.064
60184.653177.747
70167.503156.291
80148.249132.695
90122.851102.714

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1358.702425.121
2336.427391.071
3322.214377.703
4311.438366.696
5303.204358.529
6298.622347.137
7294.960339.093
8290.468331.540
9286.269323.959
10282.054318.227
11278.100313.442
12275.108308.123
13272.755304.061
14270.010299.962
15268.046295.422
16264.638291.790
17261.887287.516
18259.512283.122
19257.368279.220
20255.132276.122
21253.262273.106
22250.610269.723
23248.411267.341
24245.922263.842
25243.928261.633
26242.269259.720
27240.061256.788
28238.027254.443
29236.252251.697
30234.235248.650
31232.419245.839
32230.558242.959
33228.513240.667
34226.481238.392
35224.743235.243
36222.633232.702
37220.552230.145
38218.881227.741
39216.912225.751
40214.949223.114
41213.360220.541
42211.778218.620
43210.337216.991
44208.956214.738
45207.575212.695
46205.732210.390
47204.004208.281
48202.217205.503
49200.710203.379
50199.348201.064
51197.637198.943
52196.396196.803
53195.015194.275
54193.913191.833
55192.187189.329
56190.794186.258
57189.479184.424
58187.915182.556
59186.288180.489
60184.653177.747
61182.928174.978
62181.433172.935
63179.777171.011
64178.286168.625
65176.411166.750
66174.857164.816
67172.969162.995
68171.307160.597
69169.150158.104
70167.503156.291
71165.622153.787
72163.528151.758
73161.594149.352
74159.969147.176
75158.365144.737
76156.672142.532
77155.118140.100
78152.726137.826
79150.819135.622
80148.249132.695
81145.883129.902
82143.782127.204
83141.577124.093
84139.415121.445
85136.817119.118
86134.540115.936
87131.662112.593
88129.103109.855
89125.345106.510
90122.851102.714
91119.57799.093
92115.95994.715
93110.94489.919
94106.30583.883
95100.87079.414
9694.22674.108
9788.21666.022
9879.50358.685
9961.42049.620


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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