Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1955+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Oct79.62941.14010.95846.509186.171
Oct-Nov122.80960.67117.50879.932294.252
Oct-Dec149.85478.23620.918106.619324.803

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10185.185244.103
20157.370209.419
30138.202186.655
40122.842165.352
50109.993146.814
6097.589127.044
7084.404108.706
8070.21888.461
9053.63263.048

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1256.640331.633
2238.709303.794
3223.212292.857
4215.678283.847
5207.912277.159
6202.692267.825
7197.820261.230
8193.010255.034
9188.599248.811
10185.185244.103
11182.098240.170
12178.305235.798
13175.396232.455
14172.821229.082
15170.159225.343
16167.451222.350
17164.541218.826
18162.534215.201
19159.863211.979
20157.370209.419
21155.491206.927
22152.921204.129
23151.007202.158
24149.148199.260
25147.290197.430
26145.579195.844
27143.319193.413
28141.603191.466
29139.836189.187
30138.202186.655
31136.286184.317
32134.675181.921
33133.212180.012
34131.093178.116
35129.750175.490
36128.093173.369
37126.787171.233
38125.575169.224
39124.278167.559
40122.842165.352
41121.497163.196
42120.149161.585
43118.822160.218
44117.476158.327
45116.023156.610
46114.770154.672
47113.330152.898
48111.985150.557
49111.051148.767
50109.993146.814
51108.612145.023
52107.465143.214
53106.183141.076
54105.200139.008
55103.896136.886
56102.584134.280
57101.497132.723
58100.221131.136
5998.842129.377
6097.589127.044
6196.558124.684
6295.332122.942
6393.990121.300
6492.838119.262
6591.389117.660
6690.050116.007
6788.716114.449
6886.973112.395
6985.767110.260
7084.404108.706
7182.729106.559
7281.360104.818
7379.896102.754
7478.395100.887
7577.21698.793
7675.87896.900
7774.63794.812
7873.24592.861
7971.71390.971
8070.21888.461
8168.57986.068
8266.96083.760
8365.65981.102
8464.29878.844
8562.64776.863
8660.59274.161
8758.65871.332
8856.90569.024
8955.47066.216
9053.63263.048
9151.41560.047
9248.60456.451
9345.91952.559
9443.04447.741
9540.32444.240
9637.32840.168
9731.83534.162
9824.82528.952
9912.58722.873


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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