Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1955+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan15.41617.0735.5824.88112.40017.073
Jan-Feb26.71333.88610.4787.12527.62733.886
Jan-Mar38.296149.91721.6959.31248.590149.917

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1043.77560.142
2035.72648.025
3030.88440.992
4027.21835.099
5023.96030.498
6021.05726.098
7018.53322.433
8015.69918.772
9012.07814.567

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
171.15596.520
262.06384.264
357.50179.595
454.21675.823
551.45273.070
649.68269.299
748.20066.690
846.50264.281
944.96361.907
1043.77560.142
1142.74258.688
1241.62257.094
1340.80755.893
1439.71154.695
1539.03453.386
1638.30052.352
1737.75551.149
1836.99349.930
1936.22248.863
2035.72648.025
2135.14247.218
2234.66946.323
2334.23145.700
2433.73744.793
2533.24944.227
2632.76543.740
2732.20243.001
2831.80242.416
2931.37641.737
3030.88440.992
3130.48740.313
3229.92939.625
3329.41039.084
3429.08938.551
3528.77137.821
3628.48337.239
3728.11636.660
3827.77936.121
3927.55035.679
4027.21835.099
4126.79634.539
4226.46534.125
4326.15033.777
4425.77633.299
4525.45932.870
4625.18332.390
4724.83631.956
4824.49531.389
4924.23730.961
5023.96030.498
5123.68130.079
5223.43729.660
5323.20729.170
5422.90128.701
5522.60728.227
5622.35727.651
5722.04527.312
5821.64926.969
5921.32126.592
6021.05726.098
6120.81125.605
6220.54925.246
6320.31924.910
6420.04124.497
6519.83524.176
6619.61523.848
6719.37223.541
6819.12423.141
6918.81922.730
7018.53322.433
7118.29522.027
7218.03021.701
7317.73521.319
7417.43620.976
7517.17320.596
7616.84720.255
7716.54819.883
7816.27519.538
7916.07119.207
8015.69918.772
8115.33718.361
8215.03417.968
8314.65817.520
8414.34317.143
8514.03116.814
8613.65516.369
8713.35215.906
8812.94515.531
8912.50115.077
9012.07814.567
9111.81714.086
9211.29713.510
9310.83912.886
9410.31812.109
959.84711.539
969.21810.867
978.5109.850
987.7268.928
996.1807.783


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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