Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


Return to catchment list
Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1955+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov43.58726.28819.5316.55136.06577.781
Nov-Dec70.79639.26437.0959.96065.544164.410
Nov-Jan86.07244.84643.65713.27578.213190.113

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10111.651145.249
2093.677121.853
3081.793106.693
4071.72692.747
5064.34180.893
6057.18868.653
7049.92357.780
8041.79346.412
9032.88733.122

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1159.429204.901
2146.637185.886
3138.733178.422
4132.168172.279
5126.515167.721
6122.567161.364
7119.068156.878
8115.991152.667
9113.918148.442
10111.651145.249
11109.029142.584
12106.884139.624
13105.253137.364
14103.278135.085
15101.497132.561
1699.597130.544
1797.739128.171
1896.291125.733
1995.220123.570
2093.677121.853
2192.297120.184
2290.980118.312
2389.763116.995
2488.641115.062
2587.419113.843
2686.485112.787
2785.136111.171
2884.043109.879
2982.925108.368
3081.793106.693
3180.698105.150
3279.718103.570
3378.805102.315
3477.830101.070
3576.76299.348
3675.83797.962
3774.70896.568
3873.43695.260
3972.62394.178
4071.72692.747
4171.03691.353
4270.26490.314
4369.47789.434
4468.63788.219
4567.91487.118
4667.07085.879
4766.37984.748
4865.54883.261
4964.84282.127
5064.34180.893
5163.66279.765
5262.85778.630
5362.11077.292
5461.42776.004
5560.68274.687
5659.95873.077
5759.32372.119
5858.62971.146
5957.82870.072
6057.18868.653
6156.51567.226
6255.81166.177
6355.22565.193
6454.56063.977
6553.66563.025
6652.98762.047
6752.18361.129
6851.50059.925
6950.75458.681
7049.92357.780
7149.23956.541
7248.38155.543
7347.43554.365
7446.76753.306
7545.98052.126
7645.06551.065
7744.12049.902
7843.43948.823
7942.75847.783
8041.79346.412
8140.87245.115
8240.01943.874
8339.19842.455
8438.28141.260
8537.62540.218
8636.49238.807
8735.57737.343
8834.78636.156
8933.78834.724
9032.88733.122
9131.65331.616
9230.44129.826
9329.02727.903
9427.36925.541
9525.75223.834
9623.58221.853
9721.87718.932
9819.47916.382
9914.68613.364


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence