Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


Return to catchment list
Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1955+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May22.77714.95616.4916.26013.125129.182
May-Jun55.19353.05348.64412.29042.236201.848
May-Jul96.231119.55588.94620.07181.953358.224

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10118.847160.909
2099.174125.798
3085.915106.969
4076.39491.829
5068.12880.308
6060.81869.447
7053.12860.461
8045.10351.479
9035.60141.071

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1184.246299.056
2166.994245.572
3153.839227.276
4146.192213.232
5140.072203.369
6133.817190.360
7129.924181.672
8125.809173.870
9121.989166.369
10118.847160.909
11116.242156.485
12113.821151.707
13111.617148.153
14109.447144.649
15107.769140.862
16105.880137.901
17103.845134.493
18101.966131.075
19100.658128.108
2099.174125.798
2197.681123.588
2296.225121.153
2394.738119.465
2493.395117.027
2592.089115.511
2691.056114.214
2789.648112.252
2887.934110.705
2986.935108.919
3085.915106.969
3184.794105.198
3283.942103.411
3383.118102.009
3481.753100.635
3580.93398.760
3679.89797.271
3778.95695.792
3878.03594.420
3977.23493.298
4076.39491.829
4175.46590.415
4274.67189.372
4373.82288.495
4472.95387.296
4572.21586.220
4671.18685.020
4770.44983.935
4869.77582.522
4968.85681.457
5068.12880.308
5167.33779.267
5266.50878.228
5365.83377.015
5465.17475.858
5564.22274.686
5663.56473.268
5762.80772.431
5862.16471.587
5961.49770.661
6060.81869.447
6160.15268.237
6259.34467.354
6358.55266.531
6457.65565.519
6557.00564.732
6656.13963.927
6755.39663.176
6854.55862.195
6953.90161.187
7053.12860.461
7152.22959.466
7251.46058.668
7350.53857.731
7449.92156.891
7549.26955.958
7648.37155.122
7747.58454.209
7846.70753.363
7945.81952.549
8045.10351.479
8144.06050.468
8242.98849.501
8342.32148.396
8441.40647.465
8540.45546.653
8639.41445.551
8738.54844.404
8837.60843.472
8936.70542.343
9035.60141.071
9134.55739.868
9233.10238.424
9331.78136.853
9430.39634.889
9528.41833.441
9626.47131.724
9723.60629.102
9821.23326.703
9916.89523.684


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence