Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1955+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Mar11.57711.2174.5602.11121.54727.071
Mar-Apr26.11422.21312.5187.12332.213183.431
Mar-May48.89137.16929.00912.08145.338285.359

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1082.250
2061.873
3051.294
4042.995
5036.820
6031.125
7026.517
8022.017
9016.956

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1168.426
2134.108
3122.623
4113.903
5107.833
699.897
794.643
889.959
985.486
1082.250
1179.641
1276.835
1374.757
1472.717
1570.519
1668.808
1766.845
1864.884
1963.189
2061.873
2160.618
2259.239
2358.286
2456.912
2556.060
2655.333
2754.235
2853.372
2952.377
3051.294
3150.313
3249.327
3348.554
3447.798
3546.770
3645.955
3745.148
3844.401
3943.792
4042.995
4142.231
4241.668
4341.196
4440.550
4539.973
4639.330
4738.750
4837.997
4937.430
5036.820
5136.269
5235.720
5335.080
5434.472
5533.856
5633.114
5732.677
5832.237
5931.755
6031.125
6130.499
6230.043
6329.619
6429.099
6528.695
6628.283
6727.898
6827.398
6926.885
7026.517
7126.013
7225.610
7325.137
7424.715
7524.247
7623.828
7723.372
7822.951
7922.547
8022.017
8121.517
8221.041
8320.499
8420.044
8519.647
8619.112
8718.557
8818.107
8917.564
9016.956
9116.382
9215.698
9314.958
9414.041
9513.369
9612.578
9711.384
9810.306
998.971


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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