Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie


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Product list for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie



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Historical and exceedance probability for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1955+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan15.38725.70317.0734.88111.79925.703
Jan-Feb26.58791.96233.8867.12527.07191.962
Jan-Mar36.338116.396149.9179.31237.369116.396

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1064.12960.142
2053.23948.025
3046.50740.992
4041.27135.099
5036.72230.498
6032.63026.098
7028.86022.433
8024.79318.772
9019.51614.567

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
197.69596.520
286.88484.264
381.33579.595
476.70375.823
573.95073.070
671.89169.299
769.60966.690
867.52664.281
965.46061.907
1064.12960.142
1162.66858.688
1261.51657.094
1360.22355.893
1458.89654.695
1557.74153.386
1656.90852.352
1755.81251.149
1854.97549.930
1954.24348.863
2053.23948.025
2152.46647.218
2251.57146.323
2350.75545.700
2450.19244.793
2549.66244.227
2649.11043.740
2748.45343.001
2847.79342.416
2947.26441.737
3046.50740.992
3145.72440.313
3245.15039.625
3344.74139.084
3444.21338.551
3543.75937.821
3643.23737.239
3742.70036.660
3842.11836.121
3941.63035.679
4041.27135.099
4140.77434.539
4240.17234.125
4339.67933.777
4439.21833.299
4538.87632.870
4638.38832.390
4737.85331.956
4837.48631.389
4937.09030.961
5036.72230.498
5136.36830.079
5235.99929.660
5335.48329.170
5435.08228.701
5534.66628.227
5634.21927.651
5733.73727.312
5833.34326.969
5932.93626.592
6032.63026.098
6132.23425.605
6231.91125.246
6331.61224.910
6431.16324.497
6530.81724.176
6630.45323.848
6729.96423.541
6829.60123.141
6929.30022.730
7028.86022.433
7128.48022.027
7227.99321.701
7327.58621.319
7427.24720.976
7526.78220.596
7626.36120.255
7726.01519.883
7825.52919.538
7925.16519.207
8024.79318.772
8124.36518.361
8223.81817.968
8323.16217.520
8422.71317.143
8522.16216.814
8621.70016.369
8721.13215.906
8820.61815.531
8920.07915.077
9019.51614.567
9118.96614.086
9218.10113.510
9317.35912.886
9416.59512.109
9515.73111.539
9615.05310.867
9714.1249.850
9812.8838.928
9910.7317.783


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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