Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1068.777105.382
2057.54987.258
3048.82675.479
4042.08664.621
5036.78955.389
6031.82345.890
7026.91437.535
8021.43328.983
9015.83919.410

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1101.923151.423
291.607136.762
387.041131.005
483.061126.264
579.459122.746
676.099117.838
773.915114.372
872.416111.118
970.238107.852
1068.777105.382
1167.037103.321
1265.508101.030
1364.20099.280
1463.33597.515
1562.46695.561
1661.34893.997
1760.43892.158
1859.42090.268
1958.59988.590
2057.54987.258
2156.64085.962
2255.83284.509
2354.82983.486
2454.20881.985
2553.27881.037
2652.38980.217
2751.35578.961
2850.54977.956
2949.78476.782
3048.82675.479
3148.05674.278
3247.34673.049
3346.71972.071
3446.07071.102
3545.45569.762
3644.89868.682
3744.13167.597
3843.44566.578
3942.81365.735
4042.08664.621
4141.57363.535
4241.02962.725
4340.52262.040
4439.88261.093
4539.44360.236
4638.94859.271
4738.39258.390
4837.74657.232
4937.14756.349
5036.78955.389
5136.30054.511
5235.81753.628
5335.40552.589
5434.85851.587
5534.26850.565
5633.73549.316
5733.19448.573
5832.71647.819
5932.32446.987
6031.82345.890
6131.27544.787
6230.72843.978
6330.30743.219
6429.73942.282
6529.17441.551
6628.83340.800
6728.43040.096
6827.86539.174
6927.32038.223
7026.91437.535
7126.31336.592
7225.79735.834
7325.28134.941
7424.75134.141
7524.34933.251
7623.73232.453
7723.31531.582
7822.66530.775
7922.07230.000
8021.43328.983
8120.98728.025
8220.33927.112
8319.76026.074
8419.17125.204
8518.59324.450
8618.00823.433
8717.45422.385
8816.86821.542
8916.30320.531
9015.83919.410
9115.03118.366
9214.32517.137
9313.65715.834
9412.79614.258
9511.83213.137
9610.60911.857
979.38110.011
987.9758.444
996.0086.650


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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