Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1091.752138.057
2077.826114.761
3068.40099.596
4060.49085.582
5054.58773.623
6048.65361.255
7042.89850.301
8037.25938.990
9029.60826.195

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1132.470197.163
2123.910178.346
3115.054170.956
4109.653164.870
5104.743160.353
6101.717154.052
799.041149.602
896.418145.423
994.229141.228
1091.752138.057
1190.475135.408
1288.733132.465
1387.229130.217
1485.744127.949
1584.471125.437
1682.939123.428
1781.535121.063
1880.418118.633
1979.013116.475
2077.826114.761
2177.011113.094
2275.797111.225
2374.878109.909
2473.731107.976
2572.897106.756
2672.085105.700
2771.224104.082
2870.214102.789
2969.335101.275
3068.40099.596
3167.55298.048
3266.83296.463
3365.91595.203
3464.92093.953
3564.09592.223
3663.25590.829
3762.54189.428
3861.79388.111
3961.07187.023
4060.49085.582
4159.99384.178
4259.41883.131
4358.73782.244
4458.17181.018
4557.55579.909
4657.05378.658
4756.44777.517
4855.89176.015
4955.17974.870
5054.58773.623
5153.99572.484
5253.40571.337
5352.75069.986
5452.14868.683
5551.59867.352
5650.95065.725
5750.44064.757
5849.87363.774
5949.17562.689
6048.65361.255
6148.02459.814
6247.39858.755
6346.82357.762
6446.37256.535
6545.64155.576
6644.88254.591
6744.26053.667
6843.82052.456
6943.35751.205
7042.89850.301
7142.41549.059
7241.88048.059
7341.35046.881
7440.72645.824
7540.10144.648
7639.48943.592
7738.91342.438
7838.39241.369
7937.75240.341
8037.25938.990
8136.65537.716
8235.77736.501
8335.10635.117
8434.14133.956
8533.56832.949
8632.86531.590
8731.98730.187
8831.17729.057
8930.42027.702
9029.60826.195
9128.50224.792
9227.67323.138
9326.56321.382
9425.51419.256
9524.14317.742
9622.79416.012
9721.27413.515
9819.35511.394
9916.8278.966


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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