Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10148.702162.265
20128.616134.637
30113.890116.682
40101.545100.127
5091.83186.043
6082.24371.532
7071.83758.739
8060.43345.591
9047.48730.771

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1201.173232.455
2187.107210.103
3176.961201.326
4170.896194.098
5165.439188.735
6160.957181.252
7157.998175.970
8154.871171.009
9151.904166.029
10148.702162.265
11146.897159.123
12144.585155.631
13142.494152.963
14140.235150.273
15138.175147.293
16136.108144.911
17134.127142.107
18131.960139.226
19130.345136.668
20128.616134.637
21126.792132.662
22125.272130.448
23123.853128.888
24122.072126.600
25120.631125.155
26119.513123.905
27118.029121.990
28116.538120.459
29115.159118.668
30113.890116.682
31112.784114.851
32111.594112.978
33110.269111.488
34108.981110.010
35107.588107.967
36106.312106.320
37104.925104.666
38103.885103.111
39102.877101.827
40101.545100.127
41100.53198.471
4299.49797.236
4398.52096.191
4497.64294.746
4596.49993.439
4695.37591.967
4794.67290.623
4893.54288.855
4992.74287.508
5091.83186.043
5190.70784.704
5289.76983.355
5388.52781.768
5487.45480.239
5586.74778.677
5685.95576.769
5784.96275.634
5884.09874.481
5983.20673.210
6082.24371.532
6181.15269.845
6280.01968.607
6378.80967.446
6477.90266.013
6576.94464.892
6676.14163.742
6774.92562.664
6873.83461.251
6973.01659.793
7071.83758.739
7170.97457.292
7270.08056.128
7368.95154.758
7467.73953.528
7566.42652.160
7665.14050.934
7763.92649.593
7862.98948.351
7961.60547.159
8060.43345.591
8159.05544.114
8258.04742.705
8356.94341.102
8455.73439.757
8554.57338.589
8653.34237.016
8751.86935.392
8850.40734.084
8949.07032.515
9047.48730.771
9145.89429.146
9244.33327.231
9342.93725.196
9440.72622.731
9538.12120.974
9635.62918.963
9732.33716.056
9829.43213.581
9923.77410.736


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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