Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10154.688154.966
20128.375125.315
30112.347106.678
4097.87790.137
5087.53876.671
6076.53763.450
7066.10252.340
8055.47841.364
9042.18229.263

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1231.769232.674
2211.171207.742
3194.670197.983
4183.741189.966
5176.591184.030
6170.843175.771
7166.506169.958
8162.163164.515
9158.748159.070
10154.688154.966
11151.328151.550
12146.896147.765
13143.384144.882
14140.410141.982
15137.991138.781
16135.436136.229
17133.997133.235
18131.733130.170
19130.061127.460
20128.375125.315
21126.701123.235
22124.911120.911
23123.517119.281
24121.913116.895
25120.370115.394
26118.910114.099
27117.406112.120
28115.857110.544
29113.902108.707
30112.347106.678
31110.599104.815
32109.156102.916
33107.762101.413
34106.17299.927
35104.81297.882
36103.59696.242
37102.59694.600
38100.57193.066
3999.19691.802
4097.87790.137
4196.76488.523
4295.66387.325
4394.46086.313
4493.25484.922
4592.22983.668
4691.39582.262
4790.19280.984
4889.39679.312
4988.28278.044
5087.53876.671
5186.12275.423
5284.75774.172
5383.64872.706
5482.84371.302
5581.63169.875
5680.59168.143
5779.29967.119
5878.37866.083
5977.41164.944
6076.53763.450
6175.34961.957
6274.21160.867
6373.14659.848
6472.32558.597
6571.30457.623
6669.80256.627
6768.84955.697
6867.84054.484
6967.07553.237
7066.10252.340
7165.09651.112
7264.00650.129
7363.04048.975
7461.86147.944
7560.80446.801
7659.91245.780
7758.85544.667
7857.90643.639
7956.68542.654
8055.47841.364
8154.12440.151
8252.73238.997
8351.73637.687
8450.55236.589
8549.26635.637
8648.29034.355
8747.09233.032
8845.74531.966
8944.09130.687
9042.18229.263
9140.69427.932
9238.68726.359
9336.92724.678
9435.07022.625
9532.97821.147
9630.27819.438
9727.67016.925
9824.36014.733
9920.55612.133


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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