Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10164.802138.057
20144.975114.761
30131.21099.596
40119.09485.582
50109.26673.623
6099.38761.255
7089.51950.301
8078.85338.990
9065.03726.195

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1226.624197.163
2205.330178.346
3196.541170.956
4188.423164.870
5183.210160.353
6178.526154.052
7174.024149.602
8170.171145.423
9167.821141.228
10164.802138.057
11161.674135.408
12160.019132.465
13157.150130.217
14155.478127.949
15153.554125.437
16151.555123.428
17149.911121.063
18147.968118.633
19146.160116.475
20144.975114.761
21143.618113.094
22142.097111.225
23140.789109.909
24139.372107.976
25137.799106.756
26136.236105.700
27135.016104.082
28133.571102.789
29132.415101.275
30131.21099.596
31129.80798.048
32128.40696.463
33127.09495.203
34125.72993.953
35124.52292.223
36123.38190.829
37122.20989.428
38121.15988.111
39120.02787.023
40119.09485.582
41117.85584.178
42116.81283.131
43115.91182.244
44114.80881.018
45113.89679.909
46112.94578.658
47112.32377.517
48111.30976.015
49110.00874.870
50109.26673.623
51108.33872.484
52107.48871.337
53106.63169.986
54105.54768.683
55104.76967.352
56103.71465.725
57102.50564.757
58101.49563.774
59100.53662.689
6099.38761.255
6198.33059.814
6297.36158.755
6396.36257.762
6495.48056.535
6594.33255.576
6693.44454.591
6792.54953.667
6891.62452.456
6990.64751.205
7089.51950.301
7188.51849.059
7287.69848.059
7386.63446.881
7485.55845.824
7584.47344.648
7683.31843.592
7782.26842.438
7881.24141.369
7980.12440.341
8078.85338.990
8177.61037.716
8276.43736.501
8375.40235.117
8473.84433.956
8572.55032.949
8671.32331.590
8769.90230.187
8868.31229.057
8966.39427.702
9065.03726.195
9163.26124.792
9261.03423.138
9359.54621.382
9457.23619.256
9554.61617.742
9651.94816.012
9749.02913.515
9845.24711.394
9939.2438.966


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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