Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


  • Jan

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Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.42729.713
2017.51424.387
3016.01521.286
4014.85918.630
5013.85816.490
6012.91314.357
7012.01412.488
8010.95310.506
909.5478.027

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.95047.188
223.56740.913
322.57938.644
421.97836.852
521.38835.565
620.97533.829
720.46332.643
820.07131.558
919.74030.497
1019.42729.713
1119.20229.069
1219.00628.366
1318.82027.838
1418.58527.311
1518.36826.737
1618.17526.283
1718.00625.756
1817.82625.223
1917.65124.755
2017.51424.387
2117.29924.034
2217.13223.641
2316.98523.366
2416.80222.968
2516.68322.718
2616.57722.503
2716.45022.177
2816.30921.918
2916.15921.617
3016.01521.286
3115.89720.983
3215.78020.676
3315.65620.434
3415.54220.195
3515.43219.866
3615.30619.604
3715.17819.341
3815.07219.096
3914.97118.895
4014.85918.630
4114.75618.374
4214.65418.183
4314.53518.023
4414.42617.802
4514.33317.602
4614.24517.379
4714.12317.176
4814.03516.910
4913.96916.709
5013.85816.490
5113.75316.291
5213.67216.091
5313.58515.856
5413.48915.631
5513.39315.401
5613.30115.121
5713.17614.955
5813.09414.787
5913.00514.601
6012.91314.357
6112.83814.111
6212.73113.931
6312.65713.761
6412.56813.553
6512.46713.389
6612.40013.221
6712.30913.064
6812.20812.857
6912.10712.643
7012.01412.488
7111.90712.275
7211.81212.103
7311.71511.899
7411.62811.716
7511.53011.511
7611.43611.326
7711.33911.122
7811.20410.933
7911.04310.749
8010.95310.506
8110.83010.275
8210.71010.052
8310.5939.795
8410.4649.576
8510.3269.384
8610.1779.122
8710.0658.846
889.8828.619
899.7338.342
909.5478.027
919.3757.725
929.2047.357
938.9636.952
948.7366.434
958.4506.045
968.1665.575
977.8904.837
987.3994.139
996.7163.223


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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