Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat



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Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1023.63832.552
2019.72125.598
3017.30021.850
4015.38218.825
5013.87716.515
6012.45814.331
7011.15212.518
809.77210.699
907.9858.581

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.64959.621
232.93449.187
330.36445.605
428.72242.852
527.58540.915
626.43638.358
725.44536.648
824.74135.110
924.12933.630
1023.63832.552
1123.20031.678
1222.77730.734
1322.24730.030
1421.83029.337
1521.43628.587
1621.07228.000
1720.71727.324
1820.37226.646
1920.04526.057
2019.72125.598
2119.42625.159
2219.15724.675
2318.88924.339
2418.61723.854
2518.39323.552
2618.13023.294
2717.81722.903
2817.62222.595
2917.43422.239
3017.30021.850
3117.14121.497
3216.88921.140
3316.68520.860
3416.47420.586
3516.27820.211
3616.10219.914
3715.92619.618
3815.75519.343
3915.56019.119
4015.38218.825
4115.21718.542
4215.03418.333
4314.89818.158
4414.74317.917
4514.57617.702
4614.40317.461
4714.25417.243
4814.13016.960
4913.99416.746
5013.87716.515
5113.71616.306
5213.58416.098
5313.42115.854
5413.26515.621
5513.14715.386
5613.03515.100
5712.87414.932
5812.73314.762
5912.60214.576
6012.45814.331
6112.33414.087
6212.20213.909
6312.10013.743
6411.95813.539
6511.84513.380
6611.72313.218
6711.60813.066
6811.47312.868
6911.30912.664
7011.15212.518
7111.01912.316
7210.88212.155
7310.77411.965
7410.62611.795
7510.50211.607
7610.35811.437
7710.23811.252
7810.08611.081
799.95810.916
809.77210.699
819.61810.493
829.47110.297
839.29210.073
849.1159.883
858.9699.718
868.7649.494
878.5879.261
888.3679.071
898.1588.841
907.9858.581
917.7728.336
927.5438.041
937.3297.720
946.9847.318
956.6907.021
966.4436.669
976.0246.130
985.5695.636
994.9045.014


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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