Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat



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Exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10109.346125.544
2090.73495.283
3078.20078.680
4068.01065.359
5059.90255.355
6051.46146.119
7044.58538.681
8036.68331.491
9027.60123.548

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1170.258225.388
2149.338190.656
3140.440177.661
4135.100167.280
5128.703159.777
6123.604149.614
7118.970142.662
8115.525136.310
9112.349130.111
10109.346125.544
11106.534121.811
12104.112117.750
13102.134114.711
14100.058111.699
1598.447108.427
1696.288105.859
1794.650102.893
1893.29499.908
1992.13697.310
2090.73495.283
2189.31793.340
2288.22291.197
2386.68689.710
2485.31087.559
2583.88686.222
2682.83585.077
2781.80583.345
2880.59181.979
2979.48580.402
3078.20078.680
3177.09177.116
3276.10675.540
3374.67474.304
3473.83873.093
3572.90171.443
3671.92070.133
3770.91668.833
3869.83767.629
3969.00766.645
4068.01065.359
4167.13464.124
4266.29663.213
4365.44462.449
4464.70261.404
4563.71860.468
4663.01259.427
4762.34258.486
4861.55257.265
4960.82356.345
5059.90255.355
5158.95854.461
5257.91853.570
5357.15852.532
5456.31251.544
5555.62050.545
5654.61249.342
5753.79548.633
5852.83047.920
5952.20047.139
6051.46146.119
6150.72145.105
6250.19244.368
6349.41643.682
6448.66542.841
6547.94242.189
6647.26541.525
6746.54740.905
6845.89540.099
6945.19739.274
7044.58538.681
7143.87237.872
7243.17937.225
7342.39136.467
7441.49435.791
7540.85635.042
7639.98934.374
7739.11633.647
7838.29932.976
7937.34732.333
8036.68331.491
8135.95930.700
8235.16229.947
8334.19129.091
8433.20228.373
8532.14127.750
8631.26426.909
8730.22226.040
8829.36325.338
8928.59724.493
9027.60123.548
9126.49522.662
9225.25921.607
9323.66120.473
9422.42519.073
9520.84318.055
9619.47816.864
9717.02515.082
9814.96913.490
9912.13211.547


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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