Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile64.90246.803
Median92.59076.671
Mean99.27785.560
75% Quartile126.943115.393
Interquartile Range62.04168.590

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1240.274232.674
2219.354207.742
3203.055197.983
4191.235189.966
5184.124184.030
6178.832175.771
7173.876169.958
8170.174164.515
9166.100159.070
10162.072154.966
11158.790151.550
12154.784147.765
13150.611144.882
14147.543141.982
15144.595138.781
16142.356136.229
17140.603133.235
18138.639130.170
19136.702127.460
20135.165125.315
21133.236123.235
22131.555120.911
23130.015119.281
24128.560116.895
25126.944115.394
26125.423114.099
27123.970112.120
28122.044110.544
29120.378108.707
30118.657106.678
31116.874104.815
32115.445102.916
33113.865101.413
34112.39899.927
35110.87197.882
36109.81296.242
37108.63494.600
38106.51393.066
39104.87691.802
40103.64190.137
41102.55288.523
42101.24487.325
43100.07886.313
4498.71684.922
4597.84083.668
4696.86882.262
4795.67680.984
4894.71579.312
4993.79078.044
5092.59076.671
5191.46875.423
5290.11174.172
5388.99172.706
5487.95771.302
5586.87169.875
5685.66868.143
5784.37867.119
5883.33766.083
5982.27364.944
6081.40363.450
6180.24761.957
6279.09760.867
6378.00359.848
6476.96558.597
6575.66357.623
6674.56656.627
6773.37755.697
6872.55654.484
6971.57353.237
7070.56752.340
7169.41451.112
7268.33350.129
7367.32648.975
7466.00147.944
7564.89746.801
7663.96945.780
7762.87144.667
7861.90843.639
7960.57342.654
8059.28041.364
8158.00040.151
8256.53638.997
8355.36037.687
8454.17136.589
8553.07235.637
8651.70234.355
8750.61633.032
8849.09331.966
8947.24030.687
9045.25329.263
9143.70527.932
9241.66826.359
9339.76824.678
9437.78622.625
9535.58621.147
9632.76419.438
9729.73616.925
9826.65214.733
9922.26412.133


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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