Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile20.44022.462
Median26.29235.996
Mean27.53238.175
75% Quartile33.66551.315
Interquartile Range13.22528.853

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
155.38993.073
251.70784.380
348.83880.966
446.97278.155
545.40876.068
644.07573.158
743.18871.102
842.34569.172
941.55967.235
1040.78665.770
1140.18364.547
1239.43963.188
1339.01762.150
1438.50861.102
1537.97259.942
1637.35459.014
1736.87857.922
1836.44356.800
1935.99855.803
2035.65655.012
2135.21954.242
2234.77053.379
2334.39252.771
2434.05551.879
2533.66651.315
2633.43250.828
2733.00050.081
2832.61049.483
2932.26648.784
3031.89748.008
3131.50847.293
3231.20946.561
3330.83945.979
3430.51145.401
3530.23644.602
3629.93043.958
3729.59643.310
3829.29242.701
3929.08042.198
4028.75541.532
4128.42440.883
4228.17840.398
4327.93839.988
4427.73739.421
4527.54938.907
4627.24438.328
4726.96637.800
4826.76537.104
4926.55036.573
5026.29235.996
5126.02335.468
5225.79134.936
5325.57534.308
5425.33733.704
5525.11633.086
5624.88532.330
5724.63131.879
5824.39931.422
5924.16830.917
6023.98430.249
6123.75929.577
6223.55629.084
6323.34328.620
6423.17628.047
6522.95827.598
6622.68027.137
6722.40826.705
6822.18026.137
6921.93725.550
7021.68825.126
7121.39224.542
7221.11224.071
7320.91423.516
7420.69623.017
7520.44022.461
7620.14021.962
7719.89621.415
7819.57820.907
7919.30920.419
8019.01119.776
8118.68119.168
8218.38018.586
8318.08917.923
8417.73017.365
8517.35516.880
8617.08616.224
8716.81715.545
8816.48214.996
8916.08214.336
9015.57413.599
9115.21412.911
9214.76612.096
9314.38811.226
9413.97310.167
9513.4569.408
9612.6608.536
9711.8457.266
9810.8916.177
999.4204.916


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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