Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


Return to catchment list
Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile10.1469.682
Median12.62113.851
Mean13.25216.060
75% Quartile15.67119.861
Interquartile Range5.52410.180

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.42751.005
224.59141.954
323.30838.854
422.10236.473
521.34734.800
620.77432.592
720.24131.117
819.72429.792
919.36228.517
1018.97427.589
1118.68026.837
1218.34326.025
1318.07425.420
1417.83824.824
1517.56324.179
1617.38123.676
1717.12723.095
1816.93922.513
1916.76722.008
2016.56121.615
2116.36121.238
2216.20120.823
2316.05120.536
2415.87620.120
2515.67419.862
2615.53319.640
2715.36019.306
2815.21119.042
2915.06418.737
3014.91518.405
3114.79318.103
3214.69517.798
3314.58017.559
3414.46417.324
3514.33817.004
3614.16316.750
3714.04216.497
3813.92016.263
3913.80516.071
4013.71915.820
4113.60815.579
4213.49315.401
4313.37715.251
4413.28215.046
4513.15114.862
4613.02114.657
4712.92314.472
4812.81614.230
4912.70914.048
5012.62113.851
5112.51113.674
5212.40113.496
5312.29913.288
5412.19813.090
5512.12612.890
5612.01912.647
5711.90412.504
5811.80112.359
5911.70712.201
6011.60711.993
6111.49211.786
6211.39611.635
6311.31211.494
6411.23011.320
6511.10411.186
6611.01111.048
6710.91010.919
6810.83410.751
6910.75410.578
7010.67210.454
7110.57810.283
7210.46810.146
7310.3639.986
7410.2559.842
7510.1449.682
7610.0369.538
779.9249.381
789.7819.236
799.6179.097
809.5098.913
819.4118.739
829.2778.573
839.1638.384
849.0398.224
858.9218.084
868.7577.895
878.6277.698
888.5157.538
898.3727.343
908.1897.125
917.9886.918
927.7706.669
937.6076.399
947.3716.061
957.1075.811
966.8675.515
976.5635.063
986.1794.649
995.4984.128


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence