Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile12.49411.607
Median16.46316.515
Mean17.92019.064
75% Quartile21.74923.552
Interquartile Range9.25511.945

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.51159.621
238.89149.187
335.94445.605
433.96042.852
532.66340.915
631.23438.358
730.01936.648
829.26735.110
928.56633.630
1027.92332.552
1127.43431.678
1226.93030.734
1326.35430.030
1425.78529.337
1525.35528.587
1624.95328.000
1724.52527.324
1824.12526.646
1923.72326.057
2023.29825.598
2123.00125.159
2222.70724.675
2322.40824.339
2422.06823.854
2521.75223.552
2621.41823.294
2721.11222.903
2820.82722.595
2920.66122.239
3020.49921.850
3120.29621.497
3220.04421.140
3319.80720.860
3419.53320.586
3519.30220.211
3619.09919.914
3718.89319.618
3818.65719.343
3918.43519.119
4018.22718.825
4118.02918.542
4217.82518.333
4317.67118.158
4417.50717.917
4517.28717.702
4617.09717.461
4716.91317.243
4816.75316.960
4916.60816.746
5016.46316.515
5116.29716.306
5216.10616.098
5315.92715.854
5415.76615.621
5515.60215.386
5615.44415.100
5715.28914.932
5815.10614.762
5914.95814.576
6014.77914.331
6114.61014.087
6214.48713.909
6314.34013.743
6414.21113.539
6514.06413.380
6613.91213.218
6713.76713.066
6813.60612.868
6913.42412.664
7013.24512.518
7113.07312.316
7212.94612.155
7312.80211.965
7412.61911.795
7512.49311.607
7612.33711.437
7712.17611.252
7811.99911.081
7911.83610.916
8011.62910.699
8111.43510.493
8211.25010.297
8311.07910.073
8410.8459.883
8510.6539.718
8610.4499.494
8710.2359.261
889.9819.071
899.7488.841
909.5228.581
919.2788.336
928.9868.041
938.7827.720
948.3137.318
957.9887.021
967.6786.669
977.2126.130
986.6555.636
995.9225.014


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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