Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.272
Median22.318
Mean26.342
75% Quartile32.693
Interquartile Range17.422

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
188.790
272.192
366.554
462.241
559.221
655.249
752.604
850.233
947.960
1046.308
1144.972
1243.531
1342.460
1441.406
1540.268
1639.380
1738.358
1837.335
1936.448
2035.758
2135.099
2234.373
2333.870
2433.144
2532.693
2632.308
2731.725
2831.266
2930.737
3030.159
3129.635
3229.106
3328.692
3428.286
3527.733
3627.294
3726.858
3826.454
3926.124
4025.692
4125.277
4224.971
4324.714
4424.362
4524.047
4623.695
4723.378
4822.965
4922.653
5022.318
5122.014
5221.711
5321.358
5421.021
5520.680
5620.268
5720.025
5819.780
5919.511
6019.159
6118.809
6218.553
6318.315
6418.023
6517.795
6617.563
6717.346
6817.064
6916.773
7016.564
7116.278
7216.049
7315.780
7415.539
7515.271
7615.032
7714.770
7814.528
7914.296
8013.990
8113.702
8213.426
8313.111
8412.847
8512.616
8612.303
8711.978
8811.714
8911.395
9011.036
9110.696
9210.290
939.848
949.298
958.893
968.414
977.685
987.021
996.190


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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