Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile40.54935.044
Median59.47055.355
Mean64.71766.791
75% Quartile83.30686.222
Interquartile Range42.75751.178

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1169.395225.388
2148.670190.656
3139.777177.661
4134.491167.280
5128.044159.777
6123.003149.614
7118.456142.662
8114.924136.310
9111.741130.111
10108.736125.544
11105.987121.811
12103.507117.750
13101.576114.711
1499.570111.699
1597.882108.427
1695.768105.859
1794.139102.893
1892.78999.908
1991.56297.310
2090.20095.283
2188.78393.340
2287.68391.197
2386.11489.710
2484.73687.559
2583.31486.222
2682.30985.077
2781.25083.345
2880.11281.979
2979.00280.402
3077.74378.680
3176.61277.116
3275.60575.540
3374.21374.304
3473.32473.093
3572.42871.443
3671.42670.133
3770.45368.833
3869.37167.629
3968.55466.645
4067.55465.359
4166.70664.124
4265.84263.213
4365.01262.449
4464.24861.404
4563.28560.468
4662.58159.427
4761.92158.486
4861.09757.265
4960.40856.345
5059.47055.355
5158.52054.461
5257.51053.570
5356.74452.532
5455.92651.544
5555.22650.545
5654.19949.342
5753.39648.633
5852.47547.920
5951.80447.139
6051.10146.119
6150.34545.105
6249.81944.368
6349.07343.682
6448.30242.841
6547.59142.189
6646.87941.525
6746.22040.905
6845.52940.099
6944.86039.274
7044.23538.681
7143.55637.872
7242.85837.225
7342.08336.467
7441.17035.791
7540.53635.042
7639.68934.374
7738.76733.647
7838.01032.976
7937.04832.333
8036.38431.491
8135.68230.700
8234.90429.947
8333.90829.091
8432.95728.373
8531.90627.750
8631.00826.909
8729.95026.040
8829.12525.338
8928.34524.493
9027.38423.548
9126.26222.662
9225.02021.607
9323.43420.473
9422.22019.073
9520.67818.055
9619.30316.864
9716.87215.082
9814.84313.490
9912.00211.547


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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