Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


Return to catchment list
Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile84.28452.162
Median112.95286.043
Mean116.19092.190
75% Quartile144.352125.155
Interquartile Range60.06872.992

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1230.655232.455
2212.232210.103
3202.614201.326
4195.277194.098
5190.590188.735
6186.350181.252
7183.330175.970
8179.917171.009
9176.819166.029
10173.364162.265
11170.931159.123
12168.665155.631
13166.317152.963
14164.310150.273
15162.482147.293
16160.044144.911
17158.180142.107
18156.157139.226
19154.040136.668
20152.606134.637
21150.935132.662
22148.873130.448
23147.329128.888
24145.882126.600
25144.362125.155
26143.241123.905
27141.764121.990
28140.243120.459
29138.982118.668
30137.311116.682
31135.686114.851
32134.208112.978
33132.945111.488
34131.690110.010
35130.283107.967
36128.773106.320
37127.084104.666
38125.938103.111
39125.092101.827
40123.813100.127
41122.76398.471
42121.60597.236
43120.44296.191
44119.36394.746
45118.40193.439
46117.11091.967
47115.96790.623
48115.01088.855
49113.81287.508
50112.95286.043
51111.88284.704
52110.67883.355
53109.87381.768
54108.84480.239
55107.78978.677
56106.53476.769
57105.61575.634
58104.75374.481
59103.79373.210
60102.59571.532
61101.52569.845
62100.44168.607
6399.20767.446
6498.15566.013
6596.97264.892
6695.53263.742
6794.63262.664
6893.49261.251
6992.35859.793
7091.29458.739
7189.89957.292
7288.42956.128
7387.05754.758
7485.64953.528
7584.28452.160
7682.93750.934
7781.75649.593
7880.37948.351
7979.15247.159
8077.59245.591
8175.98544.114
8274.41042.705
8372.92641.102
8471.60839.757
8570.13938.589
8669.04337.016
8767.39235.392
8865.38434.084
8963.98332.515
9062.62730.771
9161.25529.146
9259.18527.231
9356.49725.196
9453.97622.731
9550.12520.974
9647.11918.963
9743.93916.056
9840.06713.581
9933.61210.736


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence