Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile37.31633.252
Median53.07455.389
Mean55.53659.497
75% Quartile71.61081.037
Interquartile Range34.29447.784

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1121.062151.423
2112.965136.762
3107.827131.005
4103.474126.264
599.995122.746
696.556117.838
794.013114.372
891.679111.118
989.986107.852
1088.208105.382
1186.907103.321
1285.426101.030
1384.31999.280
1483.04497.515
1581.62695.561
1680.69293.997
1779.31792.158
1878.24790.268
1977.06788.590
2076.21887.258
2175.13585.962
2274.41584.509
2373.53183.486
2472.54881.985
2571.64081.037
2670.83980.217
2770.06978.961
2868.99477.956
2967.79576.782
3067.02275.479
3165.94074.278
3265.11073.049
3364.35472.071
3463.47171.102
3562.93069.762
3662.09568.682
3761.47467.597
3860.88766.578
3960.16465.735
4059.33164.621
4158.67463.535
4258.04962.725
4357.32462.040
4456.71361.093
4555.96760.236
4655.34259.271
4754.64958.390
4854.20057.232
4953.51456.349
5053.07455.389
5152.28754.511
5251.66053.628
5351.02752.589
5450.44051.587
5549.74850.565
5649.01049.316
5748.41648.573
5847.70047.819
5947.13846.987
6046.50545.890
6145.93044.787
6245.28343.978
6344.77243.219
6444.09242.282
6543.48941.551
6642.98040.800
6742.38040.096
6841.61739.174
6941.07038.223
7040.33937.535
7139.80836.592
7239.13035.834
7338.54134.941
7437.93734.141
7537.30433.251
7636.63532.453
7735.83731.582
7835.09830.775
7934.39030.000
8033.38928.983
8132.70128.025
8232.08827.112
8331.37826.074
8430.61125.204
8529.65124.450
8628.83223.433
8728.07222.385
8827.32021.542
8926.42120.531
9025.46119.410
9124.57718.366
9223.61917.137
9322.45015.834
9421.06114.258
9519.83813.137
9618.25711.857
9716.19610.011
9814.0818.444
9911.6426.650


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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