Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat



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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.6269.682
Median11.97213.851
Mean12.58016.060
75% Quartile14.89919.861
Interquartile Range5.27210.180

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.08351.005
223.37341.954
322.14938.854
420.99636.473
520.27034.800
619.73332.592
719.22931.117
818.75229.792
918.41428.517
1018.07127.589
1117.72426.837
1217.41426.025
1317.18525.420
1416.94524.824
1516.68924.179
1616.52123.676
1716.27523.095
1816.10922.513
1915.91322.008
2015.72121.615
2115.55121.238
2215.39520.823
2315.25220.536
2415.06520.120
2514.89919.862
2614.74719.640
2714.59119.306
2814.44319.042
2914.30718.737
3014.18118.405
3114.06518.103
3213.95817.798
3313.85217.559
3413.73517.324
3513.59417.004
3613.45116.750
3713.33516.497
3813.23116.263
3913.11516.071
4013.01815.820
4112.91715.579
4212.81215.401
4312.70315.251
4412.58915.046
4512.47814.862
4612.36014.657
4712.26314.472
4812.17114.230
4912.06314.048
5011.97213.851
5111.88713.674
5211.77313.496
5311.66313.288
5411.57813.090
5511.48812.890
5611.40712.647
5711.29212.504
5811.19412.359
5911.10412.201
6011.00811.993
6110.92011.786
6210.81711.635
6310.73611.494
6410.64511.320
6510.53911.186
6610.44111.048
6710.34310.919
6810.26510.751
6910.19910.578
7010.12810.454
7110.02910.283
729.93710.146
739.8229.986
749.7199.842
759.6249.682
769.5179.538
779.3999.381
789.2609.236
799.1279.097
809.0088.913
818.9068.739
828.7928.573
838.6918.384
848.5748.224
858.4468.084
868.2847.895
878.1687.698
888.0637.538
897.9327.343
907.7637.125
917.5606.918
927.3676.669
937.1896.399
946.9806.061
956.7325.811
966.4995.515
976.1995.063
985.8274.649
995.2284.128


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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