Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile22.862
Median35.117
Mean43.393
75% Quartile54.087
Interquartile Range31.224

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1167.455
2132.513
3120.868
4112.048
5105.918
697.918
792.632
887.924
983.436
1080.193
1177.580
1274.774
1372.697
1470.659
1568.466
1666.760
1764.804
1862.852
1961.165
2059.857
2158.610
2257.240
2356.294
2454.931
2554.087
2653.366
2752.279
2851.424
2950.440
3049.368
3148.398
3247.424
3346.661
3445.915
3544.900
3644.097
3743.301
3842.565
3941.965
4041.181
4140.429
4239.875
4339.411
4438.777
4538.210
4637.579
4737.010
4836.271
4935.715
5035.117
5134.577
5234.039
5333.413
5432.818
5532.216
5631.491
5731.064
5830.634
5930.164
6029.549
6128.938
6228.494
6328.080
6427.574
6527.181
6626.780
6726.406
6825.920
6925.421
7025.063
7124.574
7224.183
7323.724
7423.315
7522.861
7622.456
7722.015
7821.607
7921.217
8020.704
8120.222
8219.762
8319.240
8418.800
8518.419
8617.903
8717.369
8816.937
8916.415
9015.831
9115.282
9214.626
9313.919
9413.042
9512.401
9611.648
9710.514
989.492
998.232


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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