Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat



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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat ( Jan 2009 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.03711.511
Median10.98316.490
Mean11.37117.938
75% Quartile13.35722.718
Interquartile Range4.32011.207

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.04847.188
219.36340.913
318.33238.644
417.91236.852
517.39035.565
616.89133.829
716.54232.643
816.26031.558
915.95030.497
1015.68829.713
1115.50129.069
1215.33828.366
1315.19527.838
1414.96127.311
1514.77726.737
1614.62026.283
1714.44425.756
1814.30525.223
1914.17824.755
2014.02824.387
2113.88324.034
2213.76723.641
2313.64223.366
2413.49622.968
2513.35822.718
2613.25722.503
2713.14722.177
2813.04021.918
2912.91321.617
3012.79521.286
3112.69920.983
3212.58420.676
3312.49520.434
3412.38320.195
3512.30519.866
3612.19919.604
3712.10219.341
3812.00819.096
3911.90218.895
4011.81218.630
4111.71318.374
4211.61818.183
4311.54118.023
4411.43817.802
4511.36017.602
4611.28317.379
4711.21317.176
4811.13816.910
4911.05416.709
5010.98316.490
5110.90516.291
5210.82316.091
5310.73115.856
5410.65215.631
5510.58115.401
5610.51415.121
5710.43114.955
5810.35114.787
5910.26614.601
6010.19414.357
6110.13014.111
6210.05013.931
639.97913.761
649.88413.553
659.81413.389
669.75213.221
679.67513.064
689.59612.857
699.51312.643
709.44612.488
719.35912.275
729.29812.103
739.22811.899
749.14511.716
759.03711.511
768.96011.326
778.85311.122
788.75910.933
798.64310.749
808.55410.506
818.44910.275
828.35310.052
838.2689.795
848.1419.576
858.0269.384
867.9189.122
877.8008.846
887.6898.619
897.5618.342
907.3978.027
917.2387.725
927.1127.357
936.9116.952
946.7376.434
956.5146.045
966.2805.575
976.0134.837
985.6554.139
995.0243.223


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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